BCAX

🏥 Healthcare

Bicara Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock

Conservative #939Aggressive #471Moderate RiskLow 35F↑ 33pt

$17.09-2.43%

Day High$17.36

Day Low$16.89

Volume0.0M

Mkt Cap$936M

52W Low $852W High $20

Market Cap

$848M

P/E Ratio

2.9

Sector avg: 252.3

Rev Growth

0.0%

Sector avg: 161.5%

Earnings Growth

-30.8%

Profit Margin

0.0%

Sector avg: -3292.7%

Debt/Equity

0.00

Why This Score

BCAX scores 36.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths

Attractively valued at 2.9x earnings, below the market average.
Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (96/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.

Risk Factors

Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
Above-average volatility (16.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BCAX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.9

Fundamental Score34.7

ML Score96.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month

22.6

6 Month

25.3

Primary

1 Year

26.6

Quality Assessment

Earnings Grade

Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Quality Flags

P/E of 2.9x with operating margin of 0.0% — P/E is likely distorted by one-time earnings

Pipeline concentration: $0.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation

4.8%

Confidence

high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score

Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)

Weinstein (12.1%)

100

Advancing

Sentiment (2.5%)

Neutral

Analyst (6.4%)

Favorable

Tradability (post-hoc)

Grade B

Base

44.9

SHAP

+0.2

Factors

+0.2

Conviction

-1.4

Divergence

-6.9

Final

36.9

Positive adjustment

Negative adjustment

Base blend

Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0

Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)64.0

External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0

Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score

Features

Confidence

Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term

-3.4% to +0.9%

Medium-term

-4.9% to +1.5%

Long-term

-6.4% to +2.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 96

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence

Consensus Score68.8/100

Target Upside+19.3%

Coverage4 analysts

Market Sentiment

Sentiment Score56.1/100

News Volume1 articles

Technical Stage

Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing

12M Momentum+0.1%

6M Momentum+0.2%

Volatility+0.2%

Momentum & Technical

Momentum Acceleration-12.2%

Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.36)

Relative Strength vs Sector-17.6%

Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)

Momentum Quality+0.044

Momentum BreadthBroad ✓

Macro Regime

Bull RegimeYes

High Vol RegimeNo

S&P 500 Return+25.0%

Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal

Low risk

Sector RevGr Rank

P41

Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers

Sector PE Rank

P39

Valuation vs Healthcare peers

Sector FCF Rank

P15

Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers

Growth Deviation

-0.0σ

Z-score vs sector median

Stagnation Flag

Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors

Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100

Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 37th percentileP37

ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight

SHAP feature alignment: +0.2pt (features align with model priorities)—

Blend: 91% fund (69.9) + 9% ML (36.2) + SHAP(+0.2) = 67.1—

Factor quality: +0.2pt (multi-factor composite)—

Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.7%. Max drawdown 36% (-11.1 pts)Moderate

Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts

Conviction penalty: -1.4pt (conviction=35)—

Divergence penalty: -3.4pt (fund 33pt higher)—

Risk Factors

Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -17 pointsGrade C

Quality concern: P/E of 2.9x with operating margin of 0.0% — P/E is likely distorted by one-time earnings; Pipeline concentration: $0.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #155 of 344 stocks)

Stock	Score	P/E	Rev Growth	Margin	Mkt Cap
BCAXBicara Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock	36.9	2.9	0.0%	0.0%	$848M
INCYIncyte Corporation	89.6	15.8	21.2%	25.0%	$20.1B
GMABGenmab A/S	85.5	13.1	22.8%	36.4%	$18.5B
CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	82.2	13.7	23.5%	37.6%	$3.0B
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor	78.0	32.1	8.9%	32.9%	$126.0B
ASNDAscendis Pharma A/S	75.7	16.6	98.0%	-31.7%	$13.3B
NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.	74.7	26.5	21.4%	16.7%	$12.5B
ALKSAlkermes plc	74.6	16.5	-6.4%	23.9%	$5.5B
AMGNAmgen Inc.	73.8	26.0	10.0%	21.0%	$199.0B
ARGXargenx SE	73.6	35.1	78.6%	38.0%	$50.9B
HOLXHologic, Inc.	73.3	31.1	1.7%	13.8%	$16.8B
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	72.7	19.4	1.0%	31.4%	$84.9B
ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.	72.3	61.7	20.5%	28.4%	$172.5B
EXELExelixis, Inc.	71.9	15.1	7.0%	33.7%	$11.7B
KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc.	71.0	41.4	473.0%	30.7%	$8.0B
HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.	70.2	16.8	22.4%	43.7%	$9.3B
Sector Average	37.1	252.3	161.5%	-3292.7%	—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus

Buy4 analysts

Buy: 3Hold: 1

Price Target

$20consensus

Low $14Median $18High $28

+17.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Bicara Therapeutics Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops bifunctional therapies for solid tumors. Its lead program is ficerafusp alfa, a bifunctional antibody that combines an epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) directed monoclonal antibody with a domain that binds to human transforming growth factor beta (TGF-b) for the treatment of solid tumors. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts. Bicara Therapeutics Inc. is a subsidiary of Biocon Limited.

CEO

Claire Mazumdar Clemon

Employees

Beta

-0.78

Industry

Biotechnology

FMP-Identified Peers

EYPT FTRE KURA MRVI PHAT PRME PROK SEPN SVRA TNGX

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)

69.7

Neutral

Trend

Bearish

10-day vs 50-day MA

From 52W High

-11.9%

High: $19.71

From 52W Low

+122.6%

Low: $7.8

Moving Averages

10-Day

$15.50

Above

20-Day

$15.70

Above

50-Day

$16.60

Above

200-Day

$14.10

Above

60-Day Support

$13.75

60-Day Resistance

$19.68

Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework

Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 89/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support

Price vs 200 SMA

+23.2%

200 SMA Slope (60d)

+8.77%

Rising

Volume Ratio

1.12x

10d avg vs 50d avg

Days in Stage

100

Confidence: 90%

Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

Metric	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2024
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0
Gross Profit	$0	$0	$0	$0
Operating Income	$-41M	$-32M	$-42M	$-27M
Net Income	$-36M	$-27M	$-37M	$-21M
EPS (Diluted)	$-0.67	$-0.50	$-0.68	$-0.38
Gross Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Operating Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Net Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 2.9

Tradability FilterGrade B — 67/100Score impact: -35.7pt

Volume

544K avg/day

Dollar Vol

$9M/day

Float

32M shares

Mkt Cap

$848M

Range

100

153% spread

Composite Liquidity Score67/100

FDCBA

Free Float

58.4%

Outstanding Shares

55M

Bid-Ask Spread

153.0%

Institutional Tradable

Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.