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23

PHAT

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1243Aggressive #1300High RiskModerate 66
$13.49+9.51%
Day High$14.39
Day Low$12.95
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $252W High $18
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
8001.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-65.8%
Profit Margin
-186.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

PHAT scores 24.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 77.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (118%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (38.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -12.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, PHAT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score24.0
Fundamental Score43.5
ML Score1.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
20.1
6 Month
22.5
Primary
1 Year
23.7

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-144.5%) with high ROE (77.3%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
89
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
72
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade B
Base
27.0
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-0.1
Divergence
-4.1
Final
24.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)45.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-20.7% to -10.7%
Medium-term
-26.9% to -12.9%
Long-term
-33.1% to -15.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 1

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.9/100
Target Upside+99.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score88.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.4%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+119.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.01)
Relative Strength vs Sector+93.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.0)
Momentum Quality+0.798
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P100
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P6
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 36th percentileP36
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (45.2) + 9% ML (33.5) + SHAP(+1.2) = 45.3โ€”
Factor quality: -0.1pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.9pt (118% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 38.9%. Max drawdown 32% (-9.7 pts)High
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -27 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-145.0%) exceeds net margin (-186.5%) by 41pp โ€” possible write-down; Negative ROIC (-144.5%) with high ROE (77.3%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #265 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PHAT24.0N/A8001.5%-186.5%$1.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB85.613.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX82.113.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
ASND75.816.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
NBIX74.826.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
AMGN73.926.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.535.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.419.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ISRG72.261.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
EXEL71.615.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ALKS71.516.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
HALO70.316.822.4%43.7%$8.2B
Sector Average37.041.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for gastrointestinal diseases. The company has the rights in the United States, Europe, and Canada to vonoprazan, a potassium-competitive acid blocker (P-CAB) that blocks acid secretion in the stomach. It is also developing vonoprazan, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease; and in combination with antibiotics for the treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection. Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Florham Park, New Jersey.

CEO
Steven L. Basta
Employees
427
Beta
0.50
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-26.7%
High: $18.31
From 52W Low
+507.1%
Low: $2.21
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.10
Above
20-Day
$12.60
Above
50-Day
$14.40
Below
200-Day
$11.60
Above
60-Day Support
$11
60-Day Resistance
$18.31
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 85/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+32.75%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$50M$40M$29M$30M
Gross Profit$43M$34M$25M$26M
Operating Income$-15M$-60M$-79M$-59M
Net Income$-30M$-76M$-94M$-74M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.41$-1.05$-1.31$-1.05
Gross Margin87.5%87.2%86.9%87.1%
Operating Margin-30.8%-151.7%-276.5%-200.3%
Net Margin-60.5%-191.9%-330.7%-251.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 8001.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 77/100Score impact: -8.1pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
64
$12M/day
Float
78
48M shares
Mkt Cap
38
$1.1B
Range
100
729% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$17.42$50.7897.9%Wide
2022$6.10$20.30107.6%Wide
2023$5.84$17.0297.8%Wide
2024$6.07$19.71105.8%Wide
2025$2.21$18.31156.9%Wide
3-Year Range
159.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
61.0%
Outstanding Shares
78M
Bid-Ask Spread
729.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.