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37

URGN

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

UroGen Pharma Ltd.

Conservative #939Aggressive #697High RiskModerate 77
$21.04+1.79%
Day High$21.11
Day Low$20.13
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$985M
52W Low $352W High $30
Market Cap
$986M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
9.3%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-24.1%
Profit Margin
-158.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

URGN scores 37.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 173.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.13) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (77/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (66.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score37.0
Fundamental Score40.6
ML Score37.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
45.9
6 Month
51.3
Primary
1 Year
54.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-63.7%) with high ROE (173.8%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
87
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
35.0
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.8
Final
37.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +2.0%
Medium-term
-2.5% to +3.6%
Long-term
-3.0% to +5.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 37

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.3/100
Target Upside+72.7%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score87.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.7%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+109.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector+88.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality+0.410
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P14
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 55th percentileP55
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (50.7) + 9% ML (51.6) + SHAP(+1.2) = 51.9โ€”
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.6pt (112% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-15.0 pts
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: very_high. Annualized volatility 66.7%. Max drawdown 64% (-12.0 pts)Very_high
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -26 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-127.2%) exceeds net margin (-158.6%) by 31pp โ€” possible write-down; Negative ROIC (-63.7%) with high ROE (173.8%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #147 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
URGN37.0N/A9.3%-158.6%$986M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 4
Price Target
$36consensus
Low $16Median $31High $60
+69.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

UroGen Pharma Ltd., a biotechnology company, engages in the development and commercialization novel solutions for specialty cancers and urothelial diseases. It offers RTGel, a polymeric biocompatible and reverse thermal gelation hydrogel to improve therapeutic profiles of existing drugs; and Jelmyto for pyelocalyceal solution. The company's lead product candidate is UGN-102, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of several forms of non-muscle invasive urothelial cancer that include low-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma and low-grade non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. It is also developing UGN-301 for the treatment of high-grade non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. The company has a license agreement with Allergan Pharmaceuticals International Limited for developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products that contain RTGel and clostridial toxins; Agenus Inc. to develop, make, use, sell, import, and commercialize products of Agenus for the treatment of cancers of the urinary tract via intravesical delivery; and strategic research collaboration with MD Anderson to advance investigational treatment for high-grade bladder cancer. UroGen Pharma Ltd. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Princeton, New Jersey.

CEO
Elizabeth A. Barrett
Employees
234
Beta
1.36
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-30%
High: $30
From 52W Low
+514.3%
Low: $3.42
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.90
Above
20-Day
$20.80
Above
50-Day
$21.40
Below
200-Day
$18.20
Above
60-Day Support
$18.12
60-Day Resistance
$28.87
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.77%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$27M$0$20M$25M
Gross Profit$24M$0$18M$22M
Operating Income$-27M$0$-37M$-28M
Net Income$-33M$0$-44M$-38M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.69$-1.05$-0.92$-0.80
Gross Margin88.1%N/A88.5%89.9%
Operating Margin-99.7%N/A-182.3%-112.6%
Net Margin-121.3%N/A-216.5%-152.7%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 75/100Score impact: -33.5pt

Volume
92
799K avg/day
Dollar Vol
73
$17M/day
Float
67
37M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$986M
Range
100
777% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$8.68$22.3788.2%Wide
2022$4.85$12.6389%Wide
2023$7.60$24.13104.2%Wide
2024$10.26$20.7067.4%Wide
2025$3.42$30.00159.1%Wide
3-Year Range
159.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
78.6%
Outstanding Shares
47M
Bid-Ask Spread
777.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.