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28

SEPN

🏥 Healthcare

Septerna, Inc.

Conservative #1164Aggressive #310Moderate RiskLow 8F↑ 31pt
$29.95-0.13%
Day High$31.13
Day Low$29.74
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.3B
52W Low $552W High $33
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
611.9%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-1817.7%
Profit Margin
-266.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

SEPN scores 27.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (325%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -30.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SEPN would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.9
Fundamental Score44.6
ML Score86.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
19.9
6 Month
22.3
Primary
1 Year
23.4

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (277.2%) — earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $1.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
75
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
58
Grade Clow float
Base
34.9
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-0.2
Conviction
-4.0
Divergence
-4.0
Final
27.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-16.1% to -9.7%
Medium-term
-22.0% to -12.8%
Long-term
-27.8% to -15.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 86

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+20.9%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score75.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+3.3%
6M Momentum+1.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+197.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+300.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+2.614
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P97
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 35th percentileP35
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (66.2) + 9% ML (34.2) + SHAP(+1.2) = 64.5—
Factor quality: -0.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.4%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.6 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (325% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.0pt (conviction=8)—
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (fund 31pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-266.8%) exceeds operating margin (-349.2%) by 82pp — likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (277.2%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #237 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SEPN27.9N/A611.9%-266.8%$1.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy3 analysts
Buy: 3
Price Target
$34consensus
Low $28Median $35High $38
+12.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products candidates for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. The company develops SEP-786, an oral small molecule PTH1R agonist for hypoparathyroidism; SEP-631, an oral small molecule MRGPRX2 NAM for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell diseases; TSHR Program, an oral small molecule TSHR NAM for Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. It also develops oral small molecule single- and multi-incretin receptor agonists for metabolic disorders including obesity and type 2 diabetes. Septerna, Inc. was formerly known as GPCR NewCo, Inc. and changed its name to Septerna Inc. in June 2021. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Jeffrey T. Finer
Employees
75
Beta
3.85
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8.4%
High: $32.63
From 52W Low
+541.6%
Low: $4.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.50
Above
20-Day
$26.90
Above
50-Day
$26.90
Above
200-Day
$18.60
Above
60-Day Support
$23.02
60-Day Resistance
$32.63
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+60.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+49.16%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.08x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$21M$119,000$219,000$212,000
Gross Profit$21M$119,000$219,000$212,000
Operating Income$3M$-29M$-26M$-25M
Net Income$8M$-25M$-21M$-21M
EPS (Diluted)$0.18$-0.56$-0.49$-0.64
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin12.2%-24351.3%-11831.1%-11659.4%
Net Margin38.0%-20872.3%-9806.4%-9749.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 611.9%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 58/100Score impact: -47.8pt

Volume
60
297K avg/day
Dollar Vol
57
$8M/day
Float
46
19M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.2B
Range
100
573% spread
Composite Liquidity Score58/100
FDCBA
low float
Free Float
41.9%
Outstanding Shares
45M
Bid-Ask Spread
573.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.