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KOD

πŸ₯ Healthcare

Kodiak Sciences Inc.

Conservative #1388Aggressive #1260High RiskLow 31F↑ 35pt
$27.25-1.33%
Day High$27.87
Day Low$26.28
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $252W High $31
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
32.4%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
2.63

Why This Score

KOD scores 7.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (437%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (35.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.63) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -17.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, KOD would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score7.4
Fundamental Score26.2
ML Score2.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
1.6
6 Month
1.7
Primary
1 Year
1.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.3B biotech/pharma β€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap β€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
76
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
11.5
SHAP
+0.3
Factors
-1.2
Conviction
-1.8
Divergence
-1.4
Final
7.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-23.3% to -14.2%
Medium-term
-32.6% to -19.5%
Long-term
-41.0% to -24.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 2

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+34.1%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score75.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 β€” Advancing
12M Momentum+4.4%
6M Momentum+1.4%
Volatility+0.4%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+292.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+412.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+3.408
Momentum BreadthBroad βœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P22
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 12th percentileP12
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.3pt (features align with model priorities)β€”
Blend: 91% fund (47.1) + 9% ML (11.7) + SHAP(+0.3) = 44.2β€”
Factor quality: -1.2pt (multi-factor composite)β€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (437% 12m momentum)β€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.8pt (conviction=31)β€”
Divergence penalty: -3.7pt (fund 35pt higher)β€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 35.5%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.6 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -11 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (41.7%) β€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.3B biotech/pharma β€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.6x β€” elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare β€” Rank #332 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KOD7.4N/A0.0%0.0%$1.3B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%β€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy18 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 6Sell: 1
Price Target
$35consensus
Low $17Median $38High $50
+28.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Kodiak Sciences Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, researches, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat retinal diseases. Its lead product candidate is KSI-301, an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody biopolymer that is in Phase IIb/III clinical study to treat wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD), as well as for the treatment of diabetic macular edema, naΓ―ve macular edema due to retinal vein occlusion, and non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy. The company's preclinical stage product candidate includes KSI-501, a bispecific conjugate to treat retinal diseases with an inflammatory component; and KSI-601, a triplet inhibitor for the treatment of dry AMD. The company was formerly known as Oligasis, LLC and changed its name to Kodiak Sciences Inc. in September 2015. Kodiak Sciences Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Palo Alto, California.

CEO
Victor Perlroth
Employees
109
Beta
2.65
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
70.5
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-12.7%
High: $31.18
From 52W Low
+1317.2%
Low: $1.92
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.30
Above
20-Day
$24.30
Above
50-Day
$25.90
Above
200-Day
$14.80
Above
60-Day Support
$20.88
60-Day Resistance
$31.18
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 β€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+83.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+80.65%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.73x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-7M$-7M$-7M$-7M
Operating Income$-62M$-56M$-57M$-46M
Net Income$-61M$-54M$-57M$-44M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.16$-1.03$-1.09$-0.84
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A β€” 81/100Score impact: -30.1pt

Volume
94
839K avg/day
Dollar Vol
82
$22M/day
Float
79
49M shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.3B
Range
100
1524% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA
Free Float
92.6%
Outstanding Shares
53M
Bid-Ask Spread
1524.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.