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PCTY

💻 Technology

Paylocity Holding Corporation

Conservative #249Aggressive #311Moderate RiskHigh 85
$103.78+0.62%
Day High$104.40
Day Low$102.01
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$5.6B
52W Low $10152W High $210
Market Cap
$5.8B
P/E Ratio
25.2
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
13.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
9.8%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

PCTY scores 62.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (85/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-2.3 points) applied. PCTY's rank of #249 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.6
Fundamental Score54.8
ML Score85.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.9
6 Month
83.7
Primary
1 Year
88.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
60.9
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
+1.2
Divergence
-2.3
Final
62.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth75
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)32.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.6% to +7.4%
Medium-term
+4.5% to +11.9%
Long-term
+6.8% to +16.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 85

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.3/100
Target Upside+68.0%
Coverage41 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.85)
Relative Strength vs Sector-51.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.265
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P59
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P47
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P78
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 77 relative to sector peers77/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 90th percentileP90
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (77.4) + 9% ML (89.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 80.9
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.4%. Max drawdown 44% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -48% (-8.5 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.8pt (conviction=85)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #61 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PCTY62.625.213.7%14.2%$5.8B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy41 analysts
Buy: 30Hold: 11
Price Target
$172consensus
Low $145Median $155High $245
+65.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Paylocity Holding Corporation provides cloud-based human capital management and payroll software solutions for workforce in the United States. The company offers Payroll and Tax Services solution to simplifies payroll, automates processes, and manages compliance requirements within one system; and expense management, on demand payment, and garnishment solutions. It also provides human capital management and employee self-service solutions, document library, compliance dashboard, and HR edge; time and attendance solution; schedule tracking services; and time collection devices, including kiosks, time clocks, and mobile and web applications. In addition, the company offers talent management solutions comprising recruiting and onboarding, as well as learning, performance, and compensation management; employee benefits management and third-party administrative solutions; employee experiences solutions, including community, premium video, survey, and peer recognition; and insights and recommendations solutions, such as modern workforce index, data insights, and reporting. Further, it provides implementation and training, client, and tax and regulatory services. The company serves for-profit and non-profit organizations across industries, including business services, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, restaurants, retail, technology, and others. It sells its products through sales representatives. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Schaumburg, Illinois.

CEO
Toby J. Williams
Employees
6,400
Beta
0.55
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
21.9
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-50.7%
High: $210.35
From 52W Low
+3.3%
Low: $100.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$105.90
Below
20-Day
$116.40
Below
50-Day
$135.70
Below
200-Day
$161.40
Below
60-Day Support
$100.5
60-Day Resistance
$154.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 1/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-35.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-9.29%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$416M$408M$401M$455M
Gross Profit$282M$280M$272M$325M
Operating Income$71M$74M$66M$127M
Net Income$50M$48M$49M$91M
EPS (Diluted)$0.91$0.86$0.86$1.61
Gross Margin67.8%68.5%67.8%71.4%
Operating Margin17.0%18.2%16.5%27.9%
Net Margin12.1%11.8%12.1%20.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 13.7%Profit margin 14.2%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 87/100Score impact: -9.0pt

Volume
89
728K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$74M/day
Float
73
43M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.8B
Range
100
108% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
79.5%
Outstanding Shares
54M
Bid-Ask Spread
108.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.