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APPF

💻 Technology

AppFolio, Inc.

Conservative #283Aggressive #551Moderate RiskModerate 79
$166.69+0.26%
Day High$169.85
Day Low$165.08
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$6.0B
52W Low $16552W High $326
Market Cap
$6.4B
P/E Ratio
46.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
19.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-30.9%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.07

Why This Score

APPF scores 60.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 26.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.07) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (79/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 46.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-2.1 points) applied. APPF's rank of #283 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.8
Fundamental Score56.0
ML Score72.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.3
6 Month
85.3
Primary
1 Year
89.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade B
Base
57.3
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.9
Divergence
-0.1
Final
60.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth45
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)42.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.7% to +7.4%
Medium-term
+4.6% to +11.9%
Long-term
+7.0% to +16.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 72

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.6/100
Target Upside+66.2%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+18.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.47)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality-0.108
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P73
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P27
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P62
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (69.6) + 9% ML (79.9) + SHAP(+1.8) = 72.3
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 8.8%. Max drawdown 36% (-11.1 pts). Price momentum -17% (-2.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.4B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #67 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APPF60.846.119.7%14.8%$6.4B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 3Sell: 1
Price Target
$275consensus
Low $245Median $265High $325
+65.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

AppFolio, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud business management solutions for the real estate industry. The company offers AppFolio Property Manager, a platform to leverage process automation, easy to use interface, and the optimization of common workflows for property management companies, as well as completes and records critical transactions in the system and give its customers access to the data they need to run their business; AppFolio Property Manager Plus, which offers customizable workflows that allow customers to digitize their existing processes, performance insights, intelligent revenue management, and integrations through selected partners and dedicated strategic account managers; and AppFolio Investment Management, a solution that is designed to enable real estate investment management organizations to manage investor relationships through enhancing transparency and streamlining certain business processes. It also provides value added services that are designed to enhance, automate, and streamline processes and workflows for property management businesses, such as electronic payment, tenant screening, and insurance services. AppFolio, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Santa Barbara, California.

CEO
Shane Trigg
Employees
1,634
Beta
0.74
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-48.9%
High: $326.04
From 52W Low
+3.5%
Low: $161.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$172.40
Below
20-Day
$181.50
Below
50-Day
$209.00
Below
200-Day
$237.90
Below
60-Day Support
$161.13
60-Day Resistance
$240.78
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 37/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-29.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.47%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
68
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$248M$249M$236M$218M
Gross Profit$153M$158M$152M$138M
Operating Income$44M$35M$41M$34M
Net Income$40M$34M$36M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$1.10$0.93$0.99$0.86
Gross Margin61.5%63.3%64.4%63.5%
Operating Margin17.6%14.1%17.2%15.5%
Net Margin16.1%13.5%15.3%14.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 19.7%Profit margin 14.8%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade B — 77/100Score impact: -3.5pt

Volume
61
314K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$51M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
70
$6.4B
Range
100
101% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$110.22$172.0143.8%Wide
2022$79.92$127.7446.1%Wide
2023$102.85$211.4169.1%Wide
2024$164.29$274.5650.3%Wide
2025$190.24$326.0452.6%Wide
3-Year Range
104.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.5%
Outstanding Shares
36M
Bid-Ask Spread
101.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.