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48

LYFT

💻 Technology

Lyft, Inc.

Conservative #579Aggressive #84Moderate RiskLow 38F↑ 16pt
$13.40-0.96%
Day High$13.58
Day Low$13.16
Volume15.5M
Mkt Cap$5.4B
52W Low $1052W High $26
Market Cap
$5.3B
P/E Ratio
1.9
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
9.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
12382.5%
Profit Margin
45.0%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.39

Why This Score

LYFT scores 49.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 86.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 45.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 1.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (99/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score49.6
Fundamental Score42.4
ML Score99.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
44.6
6 Month
49.9
Primary
1 Year
52.5

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
P/E of 1.9x with operating margin of -3.0% — P/E is likely distorted by one-time earnings
Negative ROIC (-5.5%) with high ROE (86.9%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
53.7
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
-1.1
Divergence
-6.2
Final
49.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value95
Quality95
Growth90
Stability75
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)75.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)44.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.0% to -0.5%
Medium-term
-7.4% to -0.7%
Long-term
-9.8% to -0.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 99

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector-4.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality-0.003
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
40%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P47
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P77
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (69.5) + 9% ML (53.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 70.5—
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.9%. Max drawdown 40% (-12.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=38)—
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (fund 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (45.0%) exceeds operating margin (-3.0%) by 48pp — likely one-time item; Earnings growth (12382%) massively exceeds revenue growth (9.2%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 1351x — earnings quality suspectFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #138 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LYFT49.61.99.2%45.0%$5.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold59 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 34Sell: 3
Price Target
$20consensus
Low $13Median $21High $26
+48.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Lyft, Inc. operates a peer-to-peer marketplace for on-demand ridesharing in the United States and Canada. The company operates multimodal transportation networks that offer riders personalized and on-demand access to various mobility options. It provides Ridesharing Marketplace, which connects drivers with riders; Express Drive, a flexible car rentals program for drivers; Lyft Rentals that provides vehicles for long-distance trips; and a network of shared bikes and scooters in various cities to address the needs of riders for short trips. The company also integrates third-party public transit data into the Lyft app to offer riders various transportation options. In addition, it offers access to autonomous vehicles; centralized tools and enterprise transportation solutions, such as concierge transportation solutions for organizations; Lyft Pink subscription plans; Lyft Pass commuter programs; first-mile and last-mile services; and university safe rides programs. The company was formerly known as Zimride, Inc. and changed its name to Lyft, Inc. in April 2013. Lyft, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
John David Risher
Employees
2,934
Beta
1.90
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-47.5%
High: $25.54
From 52W Low
+38.7%
Low: $9.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.50
Below
20-Day
$15.20
Below
50-Day
$17.50
Below
200-Day
$17.90
Below
60-Day Support
$12.93
60-Day Resistance
$23.33
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-25.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.49%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.59x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
18
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.6B$1.7B$1.6B$1.5B
Gross Profit$621M$758M$652M$587M
Operating Income$-185M$23M$2M$-29M
Net Income$2.8B$46M$40M$3M
EPS (Diluted)$6.60$0.11$0.10$0.01
Gross Margin39.0%45.0%41.1%40.5%
Operating Margin-11.6%1.4%0.2%-2.0%
Net Margin173.0%2.7%2.5%0.2%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 1.9Profit margin 45.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 1.9)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -19.9pt

Volume
100
14.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$192M/day
Float
100
321M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$5.3B
Range
100
164% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$36.25$68.2861.3%Wide
2022$9.66$46.64131.4%Wide
2023$7.85$18.3680.2%Wide
2024$8.93$20.8279.9%Wide
2025$9.66$25.5490.2%Wide
3-Year Range
106%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
80.4%
Outstanding Shares
399M
Bid-Ask Spread
164.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.