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PEGA

💻 Technology

Pegasystems Inc.

Conservative #171Aggressive #58Moderate RiskHigh 97
$43.08-0.46%
Day High$43.91
Day Low$42.08
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$7.3B
52W Low $3052W High $68
Market Cap
$7.4B
P/E Ratio
20.6
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
16.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
296.7%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.10

Why This Score

PEGA scores 65.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 50.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 22.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.10) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (97/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.4 points) applied. PEGA's rank of #171 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.8
Fundamental Score58.0
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.5
6 Month
86.6
Primary
1 Year
91.2

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
64.2
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-2.4
Final
65.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

83AVG
Value70
Quality85
Growth90
Stability90
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)44.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.5/100
Target Upside+38.8%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+31.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.082
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
13%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P66
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (80.1) + 9% ML (86.5) + SHAP(+3.1) = 83.8
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.6%. Max drawdown 31% (-9.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.4B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.2pt (conviction=97)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (297%) far exceeds revenue growth (16.6%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 26.9% (original: 40.4%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #43 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PEGA65.820.616.6%22.5%$7.4B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy23 analysts
Buy: 17Hold: 6
Price Target
$58consensus
Low $48Median $60High $65
+35.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software applications in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It provides Pega Platform, an application development product for clients; and Pega Infinity, a software platform that unifies customer engagement and digital process automation. The company also offers customer engagement applications, including Pega Customer Decision Hub that enable enterprises to enhance customer acquisition and experiences across inbound, outbound, and paid media channels; Pega Sales Automation to automate and manage the sales process; and Pega Customer Service to anticipate customer needs, connect customers to people and systems, and automate customer interactions to evolve the customer service experience, as well as to allow enterprises to deliver interactions across channels and enhance employee productivity. In addition, it provides intelligent automation software; Pega Cloud that allows clients to develop, test, and deploy applications and the Pega Platform using an Internet-based infrastructure; Pega Academy, which offers instructor-led and online training to its employees, clients, and partners; and guidance, implementation, and technical support services. The company primarily markets its software and services to financial services, life sciences, healthcare, communications and media, government, insurance, manufacturing and high tech, and consumer services markets through a direct sales force, as well as partnerships with technology providers and application developers. Pegasystems Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Alan Trefler
Employees
5,443
Beta
1.07
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-36.7%
High: $68.1
From 52W Low
+44.4%
Low: $29.84
Moving Averages
10-Day
$43.00
Above
20-Day
$42.70
Above
50-Day
$51.40
Below
200-Day
$54.00
Below
60-Day Support
$35.89
60-Day Resistance
$63.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-20.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.26%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.81x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
28
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$504M$381M$385M$476M
Gross Profit$401M$275M$275M$373M
Operating Income$104M$14M$17M$127M
Net Income$235M$43M$30M$85M
EPS (Diluted)$1.27$0.24$0.17$0.45
Gross Margin79.5%72.2%71.5%78.5%
Operating Margin20.7%3.8%4.5%26.7%
Net Margin46.5%11.4%7.8%18.0%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 20.6Revenue growth 16.6%Profit margin 22.5%Earnings quality grade C

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -2.2pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$75M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
73
$7.4B
Range
100
128% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$50.61$71.8334.7%Moderate
2022$14.53$55.87117.4%Wide
2023$16.66$29.6256%Wide
2024$22.04$48.9775.8%Wide
2025$29.84$68.1078.1%Wide
3-Year Range
121.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
128.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.