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71

ORRF

🏦 Financial Services

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.

Conservative #78Aggressive #199Low RiskModerate 76ML↑ 17pt
$37.10+2.63%
Day High$37.20
Day Low$36.15
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$723M
52W Low $2652W High $41
Market Cap
$743M
P/E Ratio
7.8
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
24.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
266.7%
Profit Margin
22.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.57

Why This Score

ORRF scores 71.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 7.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.6% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (17%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score71.4
Fundamental Score75.6
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.5
6 Month
93.3
Primary
1 Year
98.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
55
Grade C
Base
67.5
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-0.1
Final
71.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)80.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+12.0% to +18.3%
Medium-term
+17.6% to +26.9%
Long-term
+25.9% to +38.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.7)
Momentum Quality+0.164
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P81
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P65
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 77 relative to sector peers77/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 94th percentileP94
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (76.7) + 9% ML (93.5) + SHAP(+4.3) = 82.5—
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.6%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #19 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ORRF71.47.824.6%22.8%$743M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold6 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 4

Company Overviewvia FMP

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. operates as the holding company for Orrstown Bank that provides commercial banking and trust services in the United States. The company accepts various deposits, including checking, savings, time, demand, and money market deposits. It also offers commercial loans, such as commercial real estate, equipment, construction, working capital, and other commercial purpose loans, as well as industrial loans; consumer loans comprising home equity and other consumer loans, as well as home equity lines of credit; residential mortgage loans; acquisition and development loans; municipal loans; and installment and other loans. In addition, the company provides renders services as trustee, executor, administrator, guardian, managing agent, custodian, and investment advisor, as well as provides other fiduciary services under the Orrstown Financial Advisors name; and offers retail brokerage services through a third-party broker/dealer arrangement. Further, it offers investment advisory, insurance, and brokerage services. The company operates through offices in Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Perry, and York counties, Pennsylvania; and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, and Washington counties, Maryland, as well as Baltimore City, Maryland. Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is based in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Thomas Rodney Quinn Jr.
Employees
607
Beta
0.81
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8.9%
High: $40.72
From 52W Low
+45.1%
Low: $25.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$37.30
Below
20-Day
$37.50
Below
50-Day
$36.80
Above
200-Day
$34.20
Above
60-Day Support
$34.37
60-Day Resistance
$40.72
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 70/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+8.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.11%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.65x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
88
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$91M$90M$87M$86M
Gross Profit$65M$63M$62M$60M
Operating Income$28M$28M$25M$23M
Net Income$21M$22M$19M$18M
EPS (Diluted)$1.28$1.13$1.01$0.93
Gross Margin71.6%70.4%70.8%69.7%
Operating Margin30.4%30.9%28.4%26.3%
Net Margin23.7%24.4%22.3%20.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 7.8Revenue growth 24.6%Profit margin 22.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 7.8)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 55/100Score impact: +1.6pt

Volume
58
282K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
34
$743M
Range
90
59% spread
Composite Liquidity Score55/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.76$25.9132%Moderate
2022$21.81$28.4226.3%Moderate
2023$15.52$29.7963%Wide
2024$24.70$41.9951.9%Wide
2025$25.57$38.3840.1%Wide
3-Year Range
92.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
59.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.