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57

MPB

🏦 Financial Services

Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #386Aggressive #696Low RiskHigh 100
Market Cap
$780M
P/E Ratio
13.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
6.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
13.8%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.07

Why This Score

MPB scores 56.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 13.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.07) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (23%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MPB would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.7
Fundamental Score70.1
ML Score58.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.5
6 Month
85.5
Primary
1 Year
90.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
37
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
52.7
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.4
Final
56.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)62.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.1% to +7.9%
Medium-term
+5.6% to +12.9%
Long-term
+8.0% to +18.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 58

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+14.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.6)
Momentum Quality+0.213
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P44
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P58
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (72.8) + 9% ML (76.4) + SHAP(+5.0) = 78.1
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.5%. Stability bonus of +9.0 points. Max drawdown 8% (-0.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-41.7%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #115 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MPB56.713.96.6%16.2%$780M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for MPB.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.9Profit margin 16.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.9)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 37/100Score impact: -11.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
18
103K avg/day
Dollar Vol
29
$3M/day
Float
50
20M shares
Mkt Cap
35
$780M
Range
88
57% spread
Composite Liquidity Score37/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.52$33.8936.1%Wide
2022$24.81$34.9934%Moderate
2023$18.25$32.6156.5%Wide
2024$19.20$33.8755.3%Wide
2025$22.50$33.2438.5%Wide
3-Year Range
59.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
86.9%
Outstanding Shares
23M
Bid-Ask Spread
57.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.