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57

IBCP

🏦 Financial Services

Independent Bank Corporation

Conservative #372Aggressive #917Low RiskMixed 50ML↑ 25pt
$35.87+1.33%
Day High$36.02
Day Low$35.44
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$742M
52W Low $2752W High $37
Market Cap
$765M
P/E Ratio
11.1
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-0.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
2.6%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.23

Why This Score

IBCP scores 57.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.5% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-8.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.3
Fundamental Score68.4
ML Score33.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.6
6 Month
91.2
Primary
1 Year
96.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
45
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
56.4
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-3.1
Final
57.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.9% to +8.9%
Medium-term
+6.6% to +14.1%
Long-term
+10.2% to +20.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 33

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.6/100
Target Upside+10.6%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.86)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality+0.114
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
38%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P21
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P65
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 85th percentileP85
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (60.1) + 9% ML (85.1) + SHAP(+5.0) = 67.4—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.5%. Stability bonus of +11.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.2pt (ML 25pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-24.6%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #108 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
IBCP57.311.1-0.3%22.1%$765M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold7 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 6
Price Target
$39consensus
Low $39Median $39High $39
+8.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Independent Bank Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Independent Bank that provides various banking services to individuals and businesses. The company offers checking and savings accounts, commercial lending, direct and indirect consumer financing, mortgage lending, and safe deposit box services, as well as automatic teller machine, and Internet and mobile banking services. It also provides title insurance, insurance brokerage, and investment services. The company offers its services through approximately 59 branches, two drive-thru facilities, and seven loan production offices in Michigan; and two loan production offices in Ohio. Independent Bank Corporation was founded in 1864 and is based in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

CEO
William Bradford Kessel
Employees
732
Beta
0.78
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.1%
High: $37.39
From 52W Low
+34.1%
Low: $26.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$36.20
Below
20-Day
$36.10
Below
50-Day
$34.70
Above
200-Day
$32.60
Above
60-Day Support
$31.96
60-Day Resistance
$37.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 66/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.97%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.23x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
62
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$79M$79M$76M$75M
Gross Profit$56M$53M$53M$51M
Operating Income$20M$21M$21M$19M
Net Income$19M$18M$17M$16M
EPS (Diluted)$0.89$0.84$0.81$0.74
Gross Margin71.0%67.4%69.4%68.7%
Operating Margin25.6%26.7%27.1%25.6%
Net Margin23.4%22.0%22.1%20.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.1Profit margin 22.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.1)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 45/100Score impact: +2.4pt

Volume
30
140K avg/day
Dollar Vol
50
$5M/day
Float
50
20M shares
Mkt Cap
35
$765M
Range
79
40% spread
Composite Liquidity Score45/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 7/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$19.60$24.7323.1%Narrow
2022$17.87$26.0037.1%Wide
2023$14.90$26.9957.7%Wide
2024$22.53$40.3256.6%Wide
2025$26.75$37.1332.5%Moderate
3-Year Range
92.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.7%
Outstanding Shares
21M
Bid-Ask Spread
40.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.