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63

HTBK

🏦 Financial Services

Heritage Commerce Corp

Conservative #234Aggressive #561Low RiskMixed 47ML↑ 26pt
$12.95+2.13%
Day High$12.98
Day Low$12.71
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$797M
52W Low $852W High $14
Market Cap
$819M
P/E Ratio
17.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
5.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
18.0%
Profit Margin
18.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

HTBK scores 63.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (34%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-4.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.2
Fundamental Score70.8
ML Score37.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.3
6 Month
77.4
Primary
1 Year
81.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
62.0
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-2.8
Final
63.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)54.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.6% to +5.0%
Medium-term
+1.8% to +8.6%
Long-term
+3.0% to +12.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 37

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.4/100
Target Upside-0.6%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (1.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector+24.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.312
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P34
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (55.0) + 9% ML (81.5) + SHAP(+5.0) = 62.4—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.7%. Stability bonus of +8.6 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (ML 26pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-32.7%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #74 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HTBK63.217.05.8%18.0%$819M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold12 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 7
Price Target
$13consensus
Low $11Median $12High $15
-3.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Heritage Commerce Corp operates as the bank holding company for Heritage Bank of Commerce that provides various commercial and personal banking services to residents and the business/professional community in California. Its deposit products for business banking and retail markets include interest and non-interest bearing demand, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and time deposits. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial loans, such as operating secured and unsecured loans advanced for working capital, equipment purchases, and other business purposes; commercial real estate loans; commercial construction loans for rental properties, commercial buildings, and homes; small business administration loans; home equity lines of credit; multifamily loans on residential properties; residential mortgage loans; and consumer loans consisting of loans for financing automobiles, various consumer goods, and other personal purposes. In addition, it offers other banking services, including cashier's checks, bank by mail, night depositories, safe deposit boxes, direct deposit, automated payroll, electronic funds transfer, online bill pay, homeowner association, remote deposit capture, automated clearing house origination, electronic data interchange, and check imaging services, as well as other customary banking, factoring financing, and electronic banking services. The company operates through 17 full-service branch offices located in the general San Francisco Bay Area of California. Heritage Commerce Corp was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Robertson Jones Jr.
Employees
350
Beta
0.78
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.4%
High: $13.83
From 52W Low
+60.1%
Low: $8.09
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.20
Below
20-Day
$13.20
Below
50-Day
$12.80
Above
200-Day
$10.70
Above
60-Day Support
$10.76
60-Day Resistance
$13.83
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 83/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.26%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.62x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
88
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$70M$67M$65M$64M
Gross Profit$54M$48M$46M$45M
Operating Income$22M$21M$9M$16M
Net Income$15M$15M$6M$12M
EPS (Diluted)$0.25$0.24$0.10$0.19
Gross Margin76.3%72.1%71.2%70.5%
Operating Margin31.1%30.6%13.7%25.6%
Net Margin21.5%21.9%9.8%18.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 17.0Profit margin 18.0%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 75/100Score impact: +6.2pt

Volume
93
828K avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$10M/day
Float
84
60M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$819M
Range
95
71% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$9.33$12.6530.2%Moderate
2022$10.42$14.8735.2%Wide
2023$6.69$13.3166.2%Wide
2024$7.66$11.2738.1%Wide
2025$8.09$12.8945.8%Wide
3-Year Range
66.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.8%
Outstanding Shares
62M
Bid-Ask Spread
71.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.