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49

CCBG

🏦 Financial Services

Capital City Bank Group, Inc.

Conservative #589Aggressive #1040Low RiskModerate 68ML↑ 16pt
Market Cap
$734M
P/E Ratio
11.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
6.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
16.3%
Profit Margin
22.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.17

Why This Score

CCBG scores 49.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.7% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (18%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -18.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CCBG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score49.1
Fundamental Score70.2
ML Score35.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.1
6 Month
89.5
Primary
1 Year
94.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
50
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
30
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
48.1
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-3.0
Final
49.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 35

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.6/100
Target Upside+7.7%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+19.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.06)
Relative Strength vs Sector+9.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.9)
Momentum Quality+0.164
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
19%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P57
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P80
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (64.3) + 9% ML (80.3) + SHAP(+5.0) = 70.8—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.7%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 11% (-1.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-43.2%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #172 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CCBG49.111.96.5%22.0%$734M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for CCBG.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.9Profit margin 22.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.9)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 30/100Score impact: +8.0pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
8
74K avg/day
Dollar Vol
26
$3M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
34
$734M
Range
82
45% spread
Composite Liquidity Score30/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
45.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.