Back to Dashboard
8

OMDA

🏥 Healthcare

Omada Health

Conservative #1379Aggressive #1382Moderate RiskMixed 48F↑ 26pt
$12.60+5.40%
Day High$12.72
Day Low$11.94
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$729M
52W Low $1052W High $28
Market Cap
$673M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
38.3%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
30.2%
Profit Margin
-11.3%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

OMDA scores 8.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -29.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OMDA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score8.3
Fundamental Score44.1
ML Score4.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
38.6
6 Month
43.1
Primary
1 Year
45.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
71
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low float
Base
11.2
SHAP
+0.4
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
-0.2
Divergence
-3.8
Final
8.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.6% to -1.8%
Medium-term
-9.3% to -2.2%
Long-term
-12.0% to -2.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 4

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+118.3%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-24.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P80
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P53
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 74 relative to sector peers74/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 48th percentileP48
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (73.6) + 9% ML (45.0) + SHAP(+0.4) = 71.4
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.0%Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (fund 26pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (82.6%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #327 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OMDA8.3N/A38.3%-11.3%$673M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 4
Price Target
$25consensus
Low $17Median $25High $32
+95.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Omada Health is a U.S.-based virtual-care provider offering clinically validated programs for chronic conditions like cardiometabolic disease, musculoskeletal care, and behavioral health—delivered digitally between doctor visits.

CEO
Sean Duffy
Employees
849
Beta
6.84
Industry
Medical - Healthcare Information Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-55.6%
High: $28.4
From 52W Low
+22.8%
Low: $10.28
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.60
Above
20-Day
$12.30
Above
50-Day
$14.30
Below
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$10.28
60-Day Resistance
$19.26

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$68M$61M$55M$48M
Gross Profit$45M$40M$32M$32M
Operating Income$-3M$-4M$-8M$-7M
Net Income$-3M$-5M$-9M$-8M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.05$-0.09$-0.17$-0.15
Gross Margin66.3%65.5%58.0%66.6%
Operating Margin-3.7%-7.1%-15.3%-14.8%
Net Margin-4.7%-8.7%-17.2%-17.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 38.3%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -35.7pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$13M/day
Float
0
4M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$673M
Range
0
176% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
7.7%
Outstanding Shares
58M
Bid-Ask Spread
176.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.