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58

UFPT

🏥 Healthcare

UFP Technologies, Inc.

Conservative #403Aggressive #175Low RiskModerate 69ML↑ 16pt
$215.74-10.17%
Day High$243.40
Day Low$213.41
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $17852W High $276
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
27.0
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
26.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
31.3%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.41

Why This Score

UFPT scores 58.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.1
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score76.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.6
6 Month
86.7
Primary
1 Year
91.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
53
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
55.0
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-0.7
Final
58.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)73.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)69.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.0% to +11.4%
Medium-term
+10.0% to +18.1%
Long-term
+15.2% to +26.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 76

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.8/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-8.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.47)
Relative Strength vs Sector-16.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.063
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P79
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (68.0) + 9% ML (83.6) + SHAP(+2.4) = 71.8
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.8%. Max drawdown 21% (-5.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.8B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 16pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-48.2%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #54 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
UFPT58.127.026.1%11.2%$1.8B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

UFP Technologies, Inc. designs and custom manufactures components, subassemblies, products, and packaging utilizing specialized foams, films, and plastics primarily for the medical market. Its single-use and single-patient devices and components are used in a range of medical devices, disposable wound care products, infection prevention, minimally invasive surgery, wearables, orthopedic soft goods, and orthopedic implant packaging. The company also provides engineered products and components to customers in the automotive, aerospace and defense, consumer, electronics, and industrial markets, which are applied in military uniform and gear components, automotive interior trim, athletic padding, environmentally protective packaging, air filtration, abrasive nail files, and protective cases and inserts. It markets and sells its products in the United States principally through a direct sales force, as well as independent manufacturer representatives. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Newburyport, Massachusetts.

CEO
R. Jeffrey Bailly
Employees
4,146
Beta
1.10
Industry
Medical - Devices
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.5%
High: $274.93
From 52W Low
+21%
Low: $178.26
Moving Averages
10-Day
$238.00
Below
20-Day
$248.00
Below
50-Day
$245.30
Below
200-Day
$227.20
Below
60-Day Support
$204.61
60-Day Resistance
$274.93
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.24%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.46x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$149M$155M$151M$148M
Gross Profit$42M$43M$44M$42M
Operating Income$22M$23M$24M$23M
Net Income$18M$16M$17M$17M
EPS (Diluted)$2.24$2.11$2.21$2.21
Gross Margin28.2%27.7%28.8%28.5%
Operating Margin14.4%15.1%16.1%15.6%
Net Margin11.8%10.6%11.4%11.6%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 26.1%Profit margin 11.2%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 53/100Score impact: -18.2pt

Volume
37
160K avg/day
Dollar Vol
92
$39M/day
Float
8
7M shares
Mkt Cap
57
$1.8B
Range
87
55% spread
Composite Liquidity Score53/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$46.94$75.3446.5%Wide
2022$56.10$126.7877.3%Wide
2023$103.64$205.0865.7%Wide
2024$152.43$366.4182.5%Wide
2025$178.26$289.5747.6%Wide
3-Year Range
111.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.4%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
55.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.