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44

XERS

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #747Aggressive #816Moderate RiskModerate 66MLโ†‘ 17pt
$6.52-2.10%
Day High$6.70
Day Low$6.49
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $452W High $10
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
23.9%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
11.9%
Profit Margin
-5.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

XERS scores 43.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 73.7% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -44.35) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (22.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.6
Fundamental Score52.1
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.2
6 Month
80.7
Primary
1 Year
84.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.6%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
89
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
42.8
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-2.6
Final
43.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.5/100
Target Upside+101.0%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score89.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+91.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector+53.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality+0.549
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P67
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 69 relative to sector peers69/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (69.3) + 9% ML (81.2) + SHAP(+1.8) = 72.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 22.1%. Max drawdown 30% (-8.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 17pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (167.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 3.0% (original: 3.8%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #116 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
XERS43.6N/A23.9%-5.9%$1.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB85.613.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX82.113.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
ASND75.816.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
NBIX74.826.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
AMGN73.926.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.535.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.419.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ISRG72.261.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
EXEL71.615.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ALKS71.516.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
HALO70.316.822.4%43.7%$8.2B
Sector Average37.041.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for patient populations in endocrinology, neurology, and gastroenterology. The company markets Gvoke, a ready-to-use liquid glucagon for the treatment of severe hypoglycemia; and Keveyis, a therapy for the treatment of hyperkalemic, hypokalemic, and related variants of primary periodic paralysis; and Recorlev, a cortisol synthesis inhibitor proved for the treatment of endogenous hypercortisolemia in adult patients with Cushing's syndrome. It also has a pipeline of development programs to extend the marketed products into new indications and uses and bring new products using its proprietary formulation technology platforms, XeriSol and XeriJect. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
John Shannon
Employees
394
Beta
0.93
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-35.4%
High: $10.08
From 52W Low
+81.3%
Low: $3.59
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.70
Below
20-Day
$6.90
Below
50-Day
$7.20
Below
200-Day
$6.80
Below
60-Day Support
$6.26
60-Day Resistance
$8.42
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 33/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.33%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.88x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
6
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$74M$72M$60M$60M
Gross Profit$63M$57M$51M$51M
Operating Income$7M$4M$-3M$2M
Net Income$621,000$-2M$-9M$-5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.00$-0.01$-0.06$-0.03
Gross Margin85.2%79.6%85.5%84.2%
Operating Margin9.0%6.3%-5.1%2.8%
Net Margin0.8%-2.7%-15.3%-8.5%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 23.9%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 83/100

Volume
100
2.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
66
$13M/day
Float
100
157M shares
Mkt Cap
42
$1.1B
Range
100
182% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$1.77$6.00108.9%Wide
2022$1.14$3.1092.5%Wide
2023$0.97$3.07104%Wide
2024$1.69$3.8778.4%Wide
2025$3.14$10.08105%Wide
3-Year Range
164.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.8%
Outstanding Shares
166M
Bid-Ask Spread
182.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.