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51

SPFI

🏦 Financial Services

South Plains Financial, Inc.

Conservative #502Aggressive #883Low RiskModerate 63ML↑ 18pt
$42.34+2.79%
Day High$42.48
Day Low$41.01
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$690M
52W Low $3052W High $44
Market Cap
$692M
P/E Ratio
11.8
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
4.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
17.6%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

SPFI scores 52.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (23%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -16.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SPFI would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.2
Fundamental Score69.5
ML Score45.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.8
6 Month
89.2
Primary
1 Year
93.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
25
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
49.6
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-1.4
Final
52.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)68.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.3% to +10.4%
Medium-term
+8.8% to +16.7%
Long-term
+13.2% to +24.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 45

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.6%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.22)
Relative Strength vs Sector+13.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.6)
Momentum Quality+0.203
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
20%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P52
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P58
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (62.7) + 9% ML (81.1) + SHAP(+5.0) = 69.4—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 10% (-0.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #152 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SPFI52.211.84.9%19.9%$692M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 1
Price Target
$45consensus
Low $44Median $45High $45
+5.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

South Plains Financial, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for City Bank that provides commercial and consumer financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals. The company operates through two segments, Banking and Insurance. It offers deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, interest-bearing products, savings accounts, and certificate of deposits. The company also provides commercial real estate loans; general and specialized commercial loans, including agricultural production and real estate, energy, finance, investment, and insurance loans, as well as loans to goods, services, restaurant and retail, construction, and other industries; residential construction loans; and 1-4 family residential loans, auto loans, and other loans for recreational vehicles or other purposes. In addition, it offers crop insurance products; trust products and services; investment services; mortgage banking services; online and mobile banking services; and debit and credit cards. The company operates 25 full-service banking locations; and 15 loan production offices located throughout Texas and Eastern New Mexico. South Plains Financial, Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Lubbock, Texas.

CEO
Curtis C. Griffith
Employees
528
Beta
0.60
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.8%
High: $44
From 52W Low
+41.1%
Low: $30.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$42.10
Above
20-Day
$42.20
Above
50-Day
$41.00
Above
200-Day
$38.60
Above
60-Day Support
$37.39
60-Day Resistance
$44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 71/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.04%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
79
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$74M$74M$76M$69M
Gross Profit$52M$52M$52M$47M
Operating Income$19M$21M$19M$16M
Net Income$15M$16M$15M$12M
EPS (Diluted)$0.90$0.96$0.86$0.72
Gross Margin70.1%70.3%68.4%68.4%
Operating Margin25.7%27.9%24.4%22.7%
Net Margin20.5%22.0%19.1%17.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.8Profit margin 19.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.8)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 25/100Score impact: -10.1pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
5
66K avg/day
Dollar Vol
22
$3M/day
Float
24
12M shares
Mkt Cap
34
$692M
Range
83
47% spread
Composite Liquidity Score25/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$19.09$28.1338.3%Wide
2022$22.47$31.9634.9%Moderate
2023$18.75$30.2246.8%Wide
2024$24.05$40.9151.9%Wide
2025$30.01$42.3834.2%Moderate
3-Year Range
77.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
75.6%
Outstanding Shares
16M
Bid-Ask Spread
47.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.