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SMBC

🏦 Financial Services

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #410Aggressive #724Low RiskHigh 92
$65.00+3.24%
Day High$65.12
Day Low$63.47
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$722M
52W Low $4552W High $67
Market Cap
$727M
P/E Ratio
11.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
11.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
16.2%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.26

Why This Score

SMBC scores 55.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 20.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.4% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (13%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (92/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SMBC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.9
Fundamental Score71.5
ML Score52.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
82.7
6 Month
92.4
Primary
1 Year
97.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
23
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
52.6
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.1
Divergence
-0.7
Final
55.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+8.1% to +13.8%
Medium-term
+12.9% to +21.4%
Long-term
+19.6% to +31.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 52

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+12.5%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-0.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.96)
Relative Strength vs Sector+4.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.4)
Momentum Quality+0.120
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
16%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P70
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P64
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P83
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (80.0) + 9% ML (89.2) + SHAP(+5.0) = 85.8
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.4%. Stability bonus of +11.1 points. Max drawdown 8% (-0.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.6pt (conviction=92)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-36.3%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #123 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SMBC55.911.211.7%20.8%$727M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold3 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 2
Price Target
$71consensus
Low $68Median $71High $73
+8.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Southern Bank that provides banking and financial services to individuals and corporate customers in the United States. The company offers business banking, business financing, and business services. It also provides personal banking services, which include online and mobile banking, checking and savings, mortgage and refinance, and loans and credit services. In addition, the company offers investing and insurance services. Further, it provides accounts and digital banking services; and debit or credit cards. As of June 30, 2021, the company operated 46 full-service branch offices, and two limited-service branch offices located in Poplar Bluff, Van Buren, Dexter, Kennett, Doniphan, Sikeston, Qulin, Matthews, Springfield, Thayer, West Plains, Alton, Clever, Forsyth, Fremont Hills, Kimberling City, Ozark, Nixa, Rogersville, Marshfield, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Gideon, Chaffee, Benton, Advance, Bloomfield, Essex, and Rolla, Missouri; Jonesboro, Paragould, Batesville, Searcy, Bald Knob, Bradford, and Cabot, Arkansas; and Anna, Cairo, and Tamms, Illinois. Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Poplar Bluff, Missouri.

CEO
Greg A. Steffens
Employees
693
Beta
0.96
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.3%
High: $66.56
From 52W Low
+44.1%
Low: $45.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$64.30
Above
20-Day
$64.20
Above
50-Day
$62.20
Above
200-Day
$56.50
Above
60-Day Support
$55.91
60-Day Resistance
$66.56
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.51%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.15x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
65
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$79M$80M$78M$77M
Gross Profit$50M$44M$45M$45M
Operating Income$24M$19M$19M$20M
Net Income$18M$16M$16M$16M
EPS (Diluted)$1.62$1.38$1.39$1.39
Gross Margin62.8%55.9%57.9%59.1%
Operating Margin30.9%24.4%24.6%25.9%
Net Margin23.0%19.7%20.3%20.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.2Revenue growth 11.7%Profit margin 20.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.2)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 23/100Score impact: -12.7pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
51K avg/day
Dollar Vol
27
$3M/day
Float
15
9M shares
Mkt Cap
34
$727M
Range
84
48% spread
Composite Liquidity Score23/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$36.00$61.9353%Wide
2022$41.79$58.5033.3%Moderate
2023$30.28$55.4558.7%Wide
2024$39.00$68.6955.1%Wide
2025$45.10$63.5433.9%Moderate
3-Year Range
77.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
84.5%
Outstanding Shares
11M
Bid-Ask Spread
48.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.