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HFWA

🏦 Financial Services

Heritage Financial Corporation

Conservative #293Aggressive #669Low RiskHigh 98
$27.54+1.59%
Day High$27.72
Day Low$27.13
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$935M
52W Low $2052W High $29
Market Cap
$960M
P/E Ratio
14.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
5.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
56.1%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

HFWA scores 60.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 20.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 14.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (17%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (98/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-8.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.4
Fundamental Score72.8
ML Score34.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.6
6 Month
88.9
Primary
1 Year
93.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
56
Grade C
Base
60.0
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-3.6
Final
60.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.1% to +10.2%
Medium-term
+8.5% to +16.4%
Long-term
+12.7% to +23.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 34

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+20.3%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.91)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality+0.155
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
13%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P68
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 75 relative to sector peers75/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.0) + 9% ML (80.7) + SHAP(+5.0) = 80.5
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.1%. Stability bonus of +9.8 points. Max drawdown 8% (-0.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.4pt (conviction=98)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-52.8%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #92 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HFWA60.414.25.9%20.1%$960M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 7
Price Target
$32consensus
Low $30Median $32High $35
+17.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Heritage Bank that provides various financial services to small and medium sized businesses and individuals in the United States. The company accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest demand deposits, interest bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, personal checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. Its loan portfolio includes commercial and industrial loans, owner-occupied and non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans, one-to-four family residential loans, real estate construction and land development loans, consumer loans, commercial business loans, lines of credit, term equipment financing, and term real estate loans, as well as commercial business loans to a range of businesses in industries that include real estate and rental and leasing, healthcare, accommodation and food services, retail trade, and construction. The company also originates loans that are guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration; and offers trust services, as well as objective advice. As of January 27, 2022, it had a network of 49 banking offices located in Washington and Oregon. The company was formerly known as Heritage Financial Corporation, M.H.C. and changed its name to Heritage Financial Corporation in 1998. Heritage Financial Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Olympia, Washington.

CEO
Bryan D. McDonald
Employees
757
Beta
0.52
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5%
High: $28.98
From 52W Low
+38.8%
Low: $19.84
Moving Averages
10-Day
$27.80
Below
20-Day
$27.30
Above
50-Day
$25.90
Above
200-Day
$24.20
Above
60-Day Support
$23.36
60-Day Resistance
$28.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 54/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.86%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.06x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
62
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-18)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$87M$88M$80M$81M
Gross Profit$66M$64M$56M$58M
Operating Income$25M$22M$14M$16M
Net Income$22M$19M$12M$14M
EPS (Diluted)$0.65$0.56$0.35$0.40
Gross Margin76.4%72.8%69.4%70.8%
Operating Margin28.6%25.4%18.1%19.9%
Net Margin25.6%21.8%15.3%17.1%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.2Profit margin 20.1%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 56/100Score impact: -2.5pt

Volume
54
243K avg/day
Dollar Vol
53
$7M/day
Float
63
33M shares
Mkt Cap
38
$960M
Range
83
46% spread
Composite Liquidity Score56/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 3/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$20.95$30.8638.3%Wide
2022$23.31$34.3438.3%Wide
2023$14.85$31.2171%Wide
2024$16.55$27.5850%Wide
2025$19.84$26.9230.3%Moderate
3-Year Range
71%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.3%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
46.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.