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60

BFST

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Business First Bancshares, Inc.

Conservative #294Aggressive #486Low RiskMixed 49MLโ†‘ 25pt
$28.37+2.23%
Day High$28.45
Day Low$27.95
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$840M
52W Low $2052W High $30
Market Cap
$855M
P/E Ratio
9.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
11.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
34.9%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.61

Why This Score

BFST scores 60.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 9.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (13%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-6.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.4
Fundamental Score67.3
ML Score44.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.3
6 Month
93.1
Primary
1 Year
98.0

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
44
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
57.6
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-1.2
Final
60.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+11.2% to +17.4%
Medium-term
+16.6% to +25.8%
Long-term
+24.6% to +37.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 44

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+19.5%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.70)
Relative Strength vs Sector+4.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.6)
Momentum Quality+0.123
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
18%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P70
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P75
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P79
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 67 relative to sector peers67/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 93th percentileP93
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (67.2) + 9% ML (92.7) + SHAP(+5.0) = 74.5โ€”
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.0%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 25pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #91 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BFST60.49.711.8%17.2%$855M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Business First Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for b1BANK that provides various banking products and services. It offers various deposit products and services, including checking, demand, money market, time, and savings accounts; and certificates of deposits, remote deposit capture, and direct deposit services. The company also provides commercial and industrial loans, such as commercial lines of credit, letters of credit, working capital, term, equipment financing, asset acquisition, expansion and development, borrowing base, and other loan products; construction and development loans; commercial real estate loans; residential real estate loans comprising first and second lien 1-4 family mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit; and consumer loans, including secured and unsecured installment and term loans. In addition, it offers wealth management products, including mutual funds, annuities, individual retirement accounts, and other financial products, as well as other fiduciary services and private banking products and services. Further, the company provides a range of other financial services comprising debit and credit cards, treasury and cash management, merchant, automated clearing house, lock-box, receivables factoring, correspondent banking, and other treasury services, as well as employee and payroll benefits solutions; and drive-through banking facilities, automated teller machines, night depository, personalized checks, electronic funds transfer, domestic and foreign wire transfer, traveler's checks, vault, loan and deposit sweep accounts, online and mobile banking, e-statements, and bank-by-mail services. As of March 01, 2022, it operates approximately 48 full-service banking centers and three loan production offices across Louisiana, and in the Dallas and Houston markets. Business First Bancshares, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

CEO
David R. Melville
Employees
849
Beta
0.85
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.4%
High: $30.32
From 52W Low
+41.4%
Low: $20.07
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.70
Below
20-Day
$28.80
Below
50-Day
$27.70
Above
200-Day
$25.40
Above
60-Day Support
$25.69
60-Day Resistance
$30.32
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.96%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.2x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
66
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$130M$130M$126M$126M
Gross Profit$83M$78M$76M$75M
Operating Income$31M$29M$28M$26M
Net Income$22M$23M$22M$21M
EPS (Diluted)$0.71$0.73$0.70$0.65
Gross Margin63.9%59.6%60.3%59.8%
Operating Margin23.6%22.2%22.2%20.6%
Net Margin17.2%17.6%17.5%16.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.7Revenue growth 11.8%Profit margin 17.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.7)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 44/100Score impact: +0.3pt

Volume
31
142K avg/day
Dollar Vol
37
$4M/day
Float
58
28M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$855M
Range
86
51% spread
Composite Liquidity Score44/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$21.37$29.1830.9%Moderate
2022$20.19$29.5037.5%Wide
2023$13.05$25.5764.8%Wide
2024$18.97$30.3046%Wide
2025$20.07$28.4634.6%Moderate
3-Year Range
79.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
94.1%
Outstanding Shares
30M
Bid-Ask Spread
51.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.