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59

FSBC

🏦 Financial Services

Five Star Bancorp

Conservative #306Aggressive #429Low RiskLow 33ML↑ 33pt
$40.33+2.02%
Day High$40.49
Day Low$39.53
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$862M
52W Low $2252W High $42
Market Cap
$871M
P/E Ratio
14.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
20.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
34.9%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.22

Why This Score

FSBC scores 59.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 24.2%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 14.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.4% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (37%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, FSBC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.8
Fundamental Score73.6
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.6
6 Month
83.4
Primary
1 Year
87.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
29
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
59.3
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-3.5
Final
59.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)80.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.9% to +6.6%
Medium-term
+3.8% to +10.9%
Long-term
+5.7% to +15.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+4.1%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.70)
Relative Strength vs Sector+28.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.364
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P80
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P44
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P48
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (55.9) + 9% ML (89.3) + SHAP(+5.0) = 63.9—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.4%. Stability bonus of +11.3 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.6pt (conviction=33)—
Divergence penalty: -3.5pt (ML 33pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #95 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FSBC59.814.020.4%24.2%$871M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 1
Price Target
$41consensus
Low $37Median $41High $45
+1.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides a range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals. The company accepts various deposits, such as money market, noninterest-bearing and interest checking accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits. Its loan products include commercial and residential real estate loans; commercial loans; commercial land loans; farmland loans; commercial and residential construction loans; and consumer and other loans. The company also offers debit cards; and remote deposit capture, online and mobile banking, and direct deposit services. It operates through seven branch offices and two loan production offices in Northern California. Five Star Bancorp was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Rancho Cordova, California.

CEO
James Eugene Beckwith
Employees
205
Beta
0.51
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.6%
High: $42.26
From 52W Low
+81.5%
Low: $22.22
Moving Averages
10-Day
$40.20
Above
20-Day
$40.30
Above
50-Day
$38.50
Above
200-Day
$33.30
Above
60-Day Support
$33.77
60-Day Resistance
$42.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 83/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.52%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$68M$66M$62M$58M
Gross Profit$41M$38M$35M$33M
Operating Income$23M$22M$20M$18M
Net Income$18M$16M$15M$13M
EPS (Diluted)$0.83$0.77$0.68$0.62
Gross Margin60.0%57.9%57.1%57.0%
Operating Margin33.9%33.4%32.4%31.6%
Net Margin26.0%24.6%23.4%22.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.0Revenue growth 20.4%Profit margin 24.2%

Tradability FilterGrade D — 29/100Score impact: -5.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
6
67K avg/day
Dollar Vol
21
$3M/day
Float
32
15M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$871M
Range
100
90% spread
Composite Liquidity Score29/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 2/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$20.00$33.9851.8%Wide
2022$23.57$32.0030.3%Moderate
2023$17.74$29.0048.2%Wide
2024$21.10$35.1349.9%Wide
2025$22.22$38.8654.5%Wide
3-Year Range
74.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
68.9%
Outstanding Shares
21M
Bid-Ask Spread
90.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.