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HBT

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

HBT Financial, Inc.

Conservative #554Aggressive #1023Low RiskModerate 63MLโ†‘ 19pt
$28.07+0.68%
Day High$28.21
Day Low$27.77
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$882M
52W Low $1952W High $30
Market Cap
$892M
P/E Ratio
11.6
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
2.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
7.3%
Profit Margin
26.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.11

Why This Score

HBT scores 52.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 26.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.6x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.5% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (21%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, HBT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.7
Fundamental Score72.9
ML Score77.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.7
6 Month
76.8
Primary
1 Year
80.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
48.7
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.8
Final
52.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.1% to +4.4%
Medium-term
+1.1% to +7.7%
Long-term
+2.1% to +11.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 77

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+3.7%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.58)
Relative Strength vs Sector+12.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality+0.195
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
19%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P47
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P70
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P51
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (62.2) + 9% ML (80.9) + SHAP(+4.3) = 68.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.5%. Stability bonus of +11.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 19pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (20.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #171 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HBT52.711.62.8%26.3%$892M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

HBT Financial, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Heartland Bank and Trust Company that provides business, commercial, and retail banking products and services to individuals, businesses, and municipal entities. The company's deposits accounts consist of noninterest-bearing demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposits, health savings accounts, and individual retirement accounts. Its loan offering comprises owner and non-owner occupied commercial real estate; construction and land development and multi-family; commercial and industrial; agricultural and farmland; and one-to-four family residential loans, as well as municipal, consumer, and other loans. The company also offers wealth management services, including financial planning to consumers, trusts, and estates; trustee and custodial; investment management; corporate retirement plan consulting and administration; and retail brokerage services. In addition, it provides farmland management, farmland sales, and crop insurance services; and treasury management services, as well as originates and sells residential mortgage loans. Further, the company offers digital banking services, such as online and mobile banking, and digital payment services, as well as personal financial management tools. It operates through 57 branch locations in Central and Northeastern Illinois and four locations in Eastern Iowa. The company was formerly known as Heartland Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to HBT Financial, Inc. in September 2019. HBT Financial, Inc. was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Bloomington, Illinois.

CEO
J. Lance Carter
Employees
844
Beta
0.56
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.7%
High: $29.88
From 52W Low
+44.9%
Low: $19.46
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.30
Below
20-Day
$28.30
Below
50-Day
$27.40
Above
200-Day
$25.40
Above
60-Day Support
$23.97
60-Day Resistance
$29.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.61%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
58
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$74M$74M$73M$72M
Gross Profit$60M$59M$58M$57M
Operating Income$26M$27M$26M$26M
Net Income$19M$20M$19M$19M
EPS (Diluted)$0.60$0.63$0.61$0.60
Gross Margin81.4%79.8%79.8%79.2%
Operating Margin34.9%36.2%36.1%35.4%
Net Margin25.5%26.7%26.3%26.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.6Profit margin 26.3%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.6)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -9.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
34K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$919K/day
Float
0
11M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$892M
Range
0
54% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 11/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.19$19.4431.2%Moderate
2022$16.09$22.4833.1%Moderate
2023$16.33$23.4936%Wide
2024$17.75$25.3535.3%Wide
2025$19.46$27.8535.5%Wide
3-Year Range
52.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
36.2%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
54.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.