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58

MOFG

🏦 Financial Services

MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc.

Conservative #362Aggressive #1001Low RiskHigh 100
$49.31+2.35%
Day High$49.31
Day Low$49.31
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.0B
52W Low $2552W High $50
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
17.4
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-23.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-389.0%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.16

Why This Score

MOFG scores 57.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-7.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.6
Fundamental Score66.7
ML Score37.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.2
6 Month
62.9
Primary
1 Year
66.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
57
Grade Clow float
Base
55.8
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-2.2
Final
57.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)93.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)54.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.4% to +3.7%
Medium-term
-3.4% to +5.9%
Long-term
-4.4% to +8.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 37

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside-36.6%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.98)
Relative Strength vs Sector+59.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.636
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
19%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P33
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P61
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (66.1) + 9% ML (65.9) + SHAP(+4.4) = 70.5
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.1%Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-41.0%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #107 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MOFG57.617.4-23.1%16.7%$1.0B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 4
Price Target
$31consensus
Low $31Median $31High $32
-36.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for MidWestOne Bank that provides commercial and retail banking products and services to individuals, businesses, governmental units, and institutional customers. It offers deposit products, such as noninterest bearing and interest-bearing demand deposit accounts, interest checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and time deposits. The company also provides commercial and industrial, commercial and residential real estate, agricultural, and credit card loans, as well as consumer loans, such as secured and unsecured personal, and automobile loans. In addition, it offers various trust and investment services, including administering estates, personal trusts, and conservatorships, as well as property management, farm management, investment advisory, retail securities brokerage, and financial planning and custodial services, as well as investment-related services, including securities trading, mutual funds sales, fixed and variable annuities, tax-exempted, and conventional unit trusts. Further, the company provides other products and services comprising treasury management, debit cards, automated teller machines, online and mobile banking, and safe deposit boxes. It offers its products and services primarily through a network of 56 banking offices located in central and eastern Iowa, the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area of Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin, southwestern Florida, and Denver, Colorado. MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Iowa City, Iowa.

CEO
Charles N. Reeves
Employees
757
Beta
1.06
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
81.8
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.8%
High: $49.69
From 52W Low
+100.3%
Low: $24.62
Moving Averages
10-Day
$48.90
Above
20-Day
$47.80
Above
50-Day
$43.60
Above
200-Day
$34.20
Above
60-Day Support
$37.67
60-Day Resistance
$49.69
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+44.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.99%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
82
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$89M$88M$85M$89M
Gross Profit$59M$48M$56M$58M
Operating Income$21M$13M$20M$21M
Net Income$17M$10M$15M$16M
EPS (Diluted)$0.82$0.48$0.73$0.78
Gross Margin66.3%55.1%65.8%65.6%
Operating Margin24.1%14.3%23.1%23.7%
Net Margin19.1%11.4%17.8%18.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 17.4Profit margin 16.7%Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.4)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 57/100Score impact: -3.7pt

Volume
52
220K avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
50
20M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.0B
Range
100
102% spread
Composite Liquidity Score57/100
FDCBA
low float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 12/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.08$34.6524.5%Narrow
2022$27.17$35.5826.8%Moderate
2023$17.80$34.1663%Wide
2024$19.43$34.5656%Wide
2025$24.62$42.3853%Wide
3-Year Range
81.7%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.9%
Outstanding Shares
21M
Bid-Ask Spread
102.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.