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68

TRST

🏦 Financial Services

TrustCo Bank Corp NY

Conservative #177Aggressive #319Low RiskMixed 43ML↑ 28pt
$45.05+0.04%
Day High$45.60
Day Low$44.63
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$830M
52W Low $2752W High $48
Market Cap
$834M
P/E Ratio
13.7
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
5.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
25.2%
Profit Margin
22.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.28

Why This Score

TRST scores 68.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 13.7x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score68.2
Fundamental Score66.2
ML Score81.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.3
6 Month
74.1
Primary
1 Year
78.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
42
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
42
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
64.2
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Final
68.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.6% to +3.7%
Medium-term
-0.0% to +6.5%
Long-term
+0.5% to +9.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 81

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score41.7/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector+35.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.405
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P40
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 49 relative to sector peers49/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (49.2) + 9% ML (77.6) + SHAP(+4.3) = 56.0
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.3%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.7pt (conviction=43)
Divergence penalty: -2.7pt (ML 28pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (32.7%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #71 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TRST68.213.75.8%22.0%$834M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%

Company Overviewvia FMP

TrustCo Bank Corp NY operates as the holding company for Trustco Bank, a federal savings bank that provides personal and business banking services to individuals, partnerships, and corporations. The company accepts deposits; and offers loans and investments. It also operates as a real estate investment trust that acquires, holds, and manages real estate mortgage assets, including residential mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the company serves as the executor of estates and trustee of personal trusts; provides asset and wealth management, estate planning and related advice, and custodial services; and acts as trustee for various types of employee benefit plans, and corporate pension and profit-sharing trusts. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 147 banking offices and 163 automatic teller machines in New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Florida. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Glenville, New York.

CEO
Robert Joseph McCormick
Employees
740
Beta
0.61
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.1%
High: $48.45
From 52W Low
+65.5%
Low: $27.18
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.30
Below
20-Day
$45.10
Below
50-Day
$43.70
Above
200-Day
$38.20
Above
60-Day Support
$40.33
60-Day Resistance
$48.45
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 82/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+17.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.33%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$71M$71M$69M$68M
Gross Profit$48M$48M$46M$45M
Operating Income$21M$21M$20M$19M
Net Income$16M$16M$15M$14M
EPS (Diluted)$0.85$0.86$0.79$0.75
Gross Margin68.3%67.2%66.3%66.5%
Operating Margin30.4%30.1%28.5%27.6%
Net Margin22.1%23.0%21.7%21.1%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.7Profit margin 22.0%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 42/100Score impact: +9.9pt

Volume
21
112K avg/day
Dollar Vol
49
$5M/day
Float
42
18M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$834M
Range
99
78% spread
Composite Liquidity Score42/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 12/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$29.78$41.4732.8%Moderate
2022$29.50$39.3628.6%Moderate
2023$23.78$38.8148%Wide
2024$25.83$38.8940.4%Wide
2025$27.18$45.2749.9%Wide
3-Year Range
62.2%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.2%
Outstanding Shares
18M
Bid-Ask Spread
78.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.