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54

MBWM

🏦 Financial Services

Mercantile Bank Corporation

Conservative #398Aggressive #548Low RiskLow 39ML↑ 30pt
$53.50-0.13%
Day High$53.50
Day Low$52.98
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$919M
52W Low $3852W High $56
Market Cap
$930M
P/E Ratio
9.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
2.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
11.5%
Profit Margin
23.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.14

Why This Score

MBWM scores 56.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 23.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 9.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (16%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.14) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -15.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MBWM would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.2
Fundamental Score64.0
ML Score83.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.0
6 Month
80.4
Primary
1 Year
84.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
38
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
52.8
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-0.6
Final
56.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.1% to +5.6%
Medium-term
+2.6% to +9.5%
Long-term
+4.0% to +13.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 83

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.9/100
Target Upside+9.5%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.72)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.7)
Momentum Quality+0.139
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P46
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P74
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P30
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (55.4) + 9% ML (85.8) + SHAP(+4.3) = 62.4—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.4 points. Max drawdown 10% (-0.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.1pt (conviction=39)—
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (ML 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (86.1%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #118 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MBWM56.29.92.7%23.9%$930M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy7 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 2
Price Target
$57consensus
Low $57Median $57High $57
+6.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Mercantile Bank Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Mercantile Bank of Michigan that provides commercial and retail banking services to small- to medium-sized businesses and individuals in the United States. It accepts various deposit products, including checking, savings, and term certificate accounts; time deposits; and certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial and industrial loans; vacant land, land development, and residential construction loans; owner and non-owner-occupied real estate loans; multi-family and residential rental property loans; single-family residential real estate loans; home equity line of credit programs; and consumer loans, such as new and used automobile and boat loans, and credit cards, as well as overdraft protection services; and residential mortgage and instalment loans. In addition, it provides courier services and safe deposit facilities; and insurance products, such as private passenger automobile, homeowners, personal inland marine, boat owners, recreational vehicle, dwelling fire, umbrella policies, small business, and life insurance products, as well as owns 22 automated teller machines and 19 video banking machines. As of January 18, 2022, the company operated 44 banking offices. Mercantile Bank Corporation was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

CEO
Raymond E. Reitsma
Employees
662
Beta
0.90
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.9%
High: $55.77
From 52W Low
+41.9%
Low: $37.76
Moving Averages
10-Day
$53.60
Below
20-Day
$53.50
Above
50-Day
$51.20
Above
200-Day
$47.40
Above
60-Day Support
$45.9
60-Day Resistance
$55.77
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 70/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.31%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.73x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
62
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$93M$96M$93M$89M
Gross Profit$61M$62M$59M$55M
Operating Income$25M$27M$26M$24M
Net Income$23M$24M$23M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$1.40$1.46$1.39$1.21
Gross Margin65.8%64.8%63.5%61.9%
Operating Margin26.4%28.6%27.8%27.0%
Net Margin24.5%24.7%24.2%21.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.9Profit margin 23.9%

Tradability FilterGrade D — 38/100Score impact: -16.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
15
94K avg/day
Dollar Vol
49
$5M/day
Float
38
16M shares
Mkt Cap
38
$930M
Range
84
48% spread
Composite Liquidity Score38/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 9/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$28.51$37.3326.8%Moderate
2022$29.26$40.0131%Moderate
2023$23.89$41.9354.8%Wide
2024$33.46$52.9845.2%Wide
2025$37.76$51.8931.5%Moderate
3-Year Range
75.7%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.0%
Outstanding Shares
17M
Bid-Ask Spread
48.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.