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EFSC

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Enterprise Financial Services Corp

Conservative #159Aggressive #541Low RiskHigh 100
$58.95+2.40%
Day High$58.95
Day Low$57.62
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$2.2B
52W Low $4552W High $62
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
11.3
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
12.0%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
8.7%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

EFSC scores 66.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-6.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score66.5
Fundamental Score73.0
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.2
6 Month
79.6
Primary
1 Year
83.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
57
Grade Clow volume
Base
63.6
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.5
Divergence
-1.1
Final
66.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)73.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.2% to +4.7%
Medium-term
+1.3% to +8.1%
Long-term
+2.3% to +11.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.4/100
Target Upside+14.1%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.8%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.07)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.044
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P62
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P66
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (79.8) + 9% ML (82.1) + SHAP(+5.0) = 85.0โ€”
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.1%. Stability bonus of +9.9 points. Max drawdown 14% (-2.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)โ€”
Sector diversity: -18.0pt (Financial Services over-represented)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #46 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EFSC66.511.312.0%22.1%$2.3B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 2
Price Target
$66consensus
Low $64Median $66High $68
+12.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Enterprise Financial Services Corp operates as the financial holding company for Enterprise Bank & Trust that offers banking and wealth management services to individuals and corporate customers. The company offers checking, savings, and money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, construction and land development, residential real estate, agricultural, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers treasury management and international trade services; tax credit brokerage services consisting of the acquisition of tax credits and sale of these tax credits to clients; and financial and estate planning, investment management, and trust services to businesses, individuals, institutions, retirement plans, and non-profit organizations. Further, it offers fiduciary, financial advisory, and merchant processing services; and debit and credit cards. Additionally, the company provides international banking, insurance, internet and mobile banking, remote deposit capture, positive pay, fraud detection and prevention, automated payable, check imaging, and statement and document imaging services; and cash management products, controlled disbursements, repurchase agreements, and sweep investment accounts. It operates banking locations and administrative offices in Arizona, California, Kansas, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico market areas, as well as a network of SBA loan production offices and deposit production offices in various states. Enterprise Financial Services Corp was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Clayton, Missouri.

CEO
James Brian Lally
Employees
1,218
Beta
0.83
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.4%
High: $62.3
From 52W Low
+30.4%
Low: $45.22
Moving Averages
10-Day
$59.90
Below
20-Day
$59.20
Below
50-Day
$57.10
Above
200-Day
$56.20
Above
60-Day Support
$53.14
60-Day Resistance
$62.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 60/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.46%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.21x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
25
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$258M$244M$209M$202M
Gross Profit$184M$168M$140M$132M
Operating Income$70M$89M$64M$61M
Net Income$55M$45M$51M$50M
EPS (Diluted)$1.45$1.19$1.36$1.31
Gross Margin71.5%69.0%66.7%65.6%
Operating Margin27.1%36.4%30.7%30.3%
Net Margin21.3%18.6%24.5%24.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.3Revenue growth 12.0%Profit margin 22.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.3)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 57/100Score impact: -2.6pt

Volume
41
172K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
66
36M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.3B
Range
71
38% spread
Composite Liquidity Score57/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 13/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$42.12$52.0021%Narrow
2022$39.64$54.3131.2%Moderate
2023$32.97$56.3552.4%Wide
2024$37.28$63.1351.5%Wide
2025$45.22$62.6032.2%Moderate
3-Year Range
62.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.9%
Outstanding Shares
37M
Bid-Ask Spread
38.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.