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43

HBNC

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #763Aggressive #1245Low RiskMixed 48
$17.53-0.62%
Day High$18.11
Day Low$17.45
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$898M
52W Low $1352W High $19
Market Cap
$926M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-71.0%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-524.7%
Profit Margin
-145.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.59

Why This Score

HBNC scores 43.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.9% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (10%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.1
Fundamental Score47.9
ML Score34.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
50.6
6 Month
56.6
Primary
1 Year
59.6

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
55
Grade C
Base
40.2
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
-0.2
Final
43.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)30.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)78.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.8% to -0.7%
Medium-term
-11.4% to -0.9%
Long-term
-15.0% to -1.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 34

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+29.7%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.88)
Relative Strength vs Sector+1.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality+0.094
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P1
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 49 relative to sector peers49/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (48.8) + 9% ML (57.8) + SHAP(+2.7) = 52.3โ€”
Factor quality: +0.4pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.9%. Stability bonus of +10.1 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-145.9%) exceeds operating margin (-193.4%) by 48pp โ€” likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (125.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #215 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HBNC43.1N/A-71.0%-145.9%$926M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 3
Price Target
$22consensus
Low $22Median $22High $22
+25.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services. The company offers various deposits. It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; and sells various insurance products. It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.

CEO
Thomas Prame
Employees
841
Beta
0.81
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
41.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8%
High: $19.07
From 52W Low
+38.1%
Low: $12.7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.70
Below
20-Day
$17.90
Below
50-Day
$17.70
Below
200-Day
$16.30
Above
60-Day Support
$16.41
60-Day Resistance
$19.07
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 67/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.73%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
67
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$101M$-204M$101M$105M
Gross Profit$75M$-235M$63M$67M
Operating Income$34M$-286M$24M$28M
Net Income$27M$-222M$21M$24M
EPS (Diluted)$0.53$-4.69$0.47$0.54
Gross Margin74.4%N/A61.9%63.5%
Operating Margin34.1%N/A24.1%26.8%
Net Margin26.7%N/A20.4%22.8%

Why This Stock

Financial Services

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 55/100Score impact: -15.1pt

Volume
66
363K avg/day
Dollar Vol
52
$6M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
37
$926M
Range
85
50% spread
Composite Liquidity Score55/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.66$21.5331.6%Moderate
2022$14.50$23.8048.6%Wide
2023$7.69$16.4372.5%Wide
2024$11.18$19.1852.7%Wide
2025$12.70$18.7038.2%Wide
3-Year Range
85.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
50.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.