Back to Dashboard
26

ARVN

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Arvinas, Inc.

Conservative #1164Aggressive #949Moderate RiskMixed 52Fโ†‘ 17pt
$13.41+0.87%
Day High$13.52
Day Low$13.07
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$985M
52W Low $652W High $19
Market Cap
$966M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
235.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
45.8%
Profit Margin
-18.7%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.65

Why This Score

ARVN scores 26.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (24.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.65) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score26.2
Fundamental Score31.4
ML Score4.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
27.1
6 Month
30.3
Primary
1 Year
31.9

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.3%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
24.1
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-1.9
Final
26.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)53.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage78%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.7% to -3.6%
Medium-term
-11.8% to -4.3%
Long-term
-14.8% to -5.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 4

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.0/100
Target Upside+11.1%
Coverage25 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-84.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.67)
Relative Strength vs Sector-58.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.256
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P95
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P59
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 40th percentileP40
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (56.6) + 9% ML (37.6) + SHAP(+3.3) = 58.2โ€”
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 24.3%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.9 pts). Price momentum -34% (-5.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (fund 17pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-18.7%) exceeds operating margin (-105.0%) by 86pp โ€” likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.6x โ€” elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #234 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ARVN26.2N/A235.5%-18.7%$966M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy26 analysts
Buy: 20Hold: 5Sell: 1
Price Target
$13consensus
Low $6Median $14High $18
-1.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. Its lead product candidates include Bavdegalutamide, a proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) protein degrader that is in phase I clinical trial targeting the androgen receptor (AR) protein for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC); ARV-471, a PROTAC protein degrader targeting the estrogen receptor protein for the treatment of patients with metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer; and ARV-766 an investigational orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degrader for the treatment of men with mCRPC. The company has collaborations with Pfizer Inc., Genentech, Inc., F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., and Bayer AG. Arvinas, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.

CEO
Randy Teel
Employees
430
Beta
1.88
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.3%
High: $18.93
From 52W Low
+126.9%
Low: $5.9
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.30
Above
20-Day
$12.80
Above
50-Day
$12.40
Above
200-Day
$9.50
Above
60-Day Support
$11
60-Day Resistance
$14.14
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 89/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+40.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.01%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.2x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
77
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$10M$42M$22M$189M
Gross Profit$-652M$42M$22M$189M
Operating Income$-75M$-44M$-72M$71M
Net Income$-67M$-35M$-61M$83M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.10$-0.48$-0.84$1.14
Gross Margin-6860.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-785.3%-104.5%-319.2%37.8%
Net Margin-709.5%-83.8%-273.2%43.9%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 235.5%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 76/100Score impact: -13.3pt

Volume
95
879K avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
82
56M shares
Mkt Cap
38
$966M
Range
100
221% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$56.59$108.4762.9%Wide
2022$31.54$82.8689.7%Wide
2023$13.57$42.84103.8%Wide
2024$17.37$53.08101.4%Wide
2025$5.90$21.00112.3%Wide
3-Year Range
160%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.0%
Outstanding Shares
73M
Bid-Ask Spread
221.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.