Back to Dashboard
49

COFS

🏦 Financial Services

ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.

Conservative #555Aggressive #536Low RiskLow 26ML↑ 37pt
$29.68+0.64%
Day High$29.68
Day Low$29.35
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$446M
52W Low $2552W High $35
Market Cap
$447M
P/E Ratio
15.8
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
38.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
5.4%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.67

Why This Score

COFS scores 50.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (4.5% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, COFS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.4
Fundamental Score59.0
ML Score71.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.0
6 Month
69.3
Primary
1 Year
72.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
31
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
50.5
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
+0.6
Divergence
-4.1
Final
50.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)63.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.3% to +0.9%
Medium-term
-4.6% to +1.6%
Long-term
-5.9% to +2.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 71

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+24.3%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.84)
Relative Strength vs Sector-14.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.057
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P90
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P38
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P35
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 35 relative to sector peers35/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 72th percentileP72
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (35.0) + 9% ML (72.2) + SHAP(+4.3) = 42.7—
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.5%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Price momentum -6% (-0.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.3pt (conviction=26)—
Divergence penalty: -4.1pt (ML 37pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (36.9%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #168 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
COFS50.415.838.7%12.4%$447M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy3 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 1
Price Target
$36consensus
Low $36Median $36High $36
+21.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ChoiceOne Bank that provides community banking services to corporations, partnerships, and individuals in Michigan. The company offers various deposit products, including time, savings, and demand deposits, safe deposit, and automated transaction machine services. It also provides commercial loans, such as business, industry, agricultural, construction, inventory, and real estate loans; and consumer loans comprising direct and indirect loans to consumers and purchasers of residential and real properties. In addition, the company offers safe deposit and automated transaction machine services; and alternative investment products, including annuities and mutual funds, as well as sells insurance policies, such as life and health for commercial and consumer clients. It operates 32 full-service offices in Kent, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Ottawa, Lapeer, Macomb, and St. Clair counties, Michigan. The company also operates three loan production offices. ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Sparta, Michigan.

CEO
Kelly J. Potes
Employees
605
Beta
0.60
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.6%
High: $35.4
From 52W Low
+18.7%
Low: $24.89
Moving Averages
10-Day
$29.10
Above
20-Day
$29.40
Above
50-Day
$29.50
Above
200-Day
$29.50
Above
60-Day Support
$27.44
60-Day Resistance
$35.4
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 21/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.9%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$60M$62M$60M$45M
Gross Profit$42M$45M$42M$18M
Operating Income$17M$18M$17M$-18M
Net Income$14M$15M$14M$-14M
EPS (Diluted)$0.92$0.97$0.90$-1.30
Gross Margin69.7%72.0%69.8%40.3%
Operating Margin27.8%29.6%27.6%-39.2%
Net Margin22.9%23.7%22.4%-31.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 15.8Revenue growth 38.7%Profit margin 12.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.8)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 31/100Score impact: -2.1pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
22
115K avg/day
Dollar Vol
29
$3M/day
Float
29
14M shares
Mkt Cap
23
$447M
Range
81
42% spread
Composite Liquidity Score31/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
91.6%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
42.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.