Back to Dashboard
45

BWB

🏦 Financial Services

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.

Conservative #725Aggressive #805Low RiskHigh 89
$19.10+2.85%
Day High$19.11
Day Low$18.70
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$527M
52W Low $1252W High $20
Market Cap
$533M
P/E Ratio
11.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
16.0%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
40.4%
Profit Margin
15.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.98

Why This Score

BWB scores 44.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (32%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (89/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -16.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BWB would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.5
Fundamental Score61.5
ML Score38.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
41.4
6 Month
46.3
Primary
1 Year
48.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
30
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
41.8
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.2
Divergence
-1.3
Final
44.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.1% to +4.5%
Medium-term
+0.8% to +7.9%
Long-term
+1.6% to +11.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 38

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+25.9%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score68.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+15.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.53)
Relative Strength vs Sector+23.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.302
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P75
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P61
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (45.1) + 9% ML (50.5) + SHAP(+4.3) = 49.9
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.4 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.3pt (conviction=89)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-35.3%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #209 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BWB44.511.516.0%15.8%$533M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 1
Price Target
$24consensus
Low $23Median $24High $24
+23.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Bridgewater Bank that provides banking products and services to commercial real estate investors, small business entrepreneurs, and high net worth individuals in the United States. The company offers savings and money market accounts, demand deposits, time and brokered deposits, and interest and noninterest bearing transaction, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial loans to sole proprietorships, partnerships, corporations, and other business enterprises to finance accounts receivable or inventory, capital assets, or other business-related purposes; paycheck protection program loans; construction and land development loans; 1-4 family mortgage loans; multifamily lending products; owner and non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans; and consumer and other loans. In addition, the company online, mobile, and direct banking services. It operates through seven full-service offices located in Bloomington, Greenwood, Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, Orono, and St. Paul, Minnesota. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.

CEO
Gerald John Baack
Employees
292
Beta
0.64
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.9%
High: $20.3
From 52W Low
+60.1%
Low: $11.93
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.10
Below
20-Day
$19.30
Below
50-Day
$18.70
Above
200-Day
$16.90
Above
60-Day Support
$17.16
60-Day Resistance
$20.3
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 77/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.72%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.71x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$76M$75M$72M$67M
Gross Profit$39M$35M$34M$30M
Operating Income$19M$15M$15M$13M
Net Income$13M$12M$12M$10M
EPS (Diluted)$0.43$0.38$0.38$0.31
Gross Margin50.8%46.1%46.5%45.1%
Operating Margin24.3%20.0%20.9%18.8%
Net Margin17.4%15.4%15.9%14.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.5Revenue growth 16.0%Profit margin 15.8%

Tradability FilterGrade D — 30/100Score impact: -14.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
13
89K avg/day
Dollar Vol
8
$2M/day
Float
52
22M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$533M
Range
95
70% spread
Composite Liquidity Score30/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.22$20.0534%Moderate
2022$14.97$20.2029.8%Moderate
2023$7.90$17.8777.4%Wide
2024$10.52$16.0041.3%Wide
2025$11.93$19.1146.3%Wide
3-Year Range
83%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
80.0%
Outstanding Shares
28M
Bid-Ask Spread
70.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.