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CBNK

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Capital Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #867Aggressive #970Low RiskModerate 79MLโ†‘ 15pt
$30.97+1.54%
Day High$30.97
Day Low$30.48
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$512M
52W Low $2552W High $36
Market Cap
$515M
P/E Ratio
9.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
25.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
84.6%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.13

Why This Score

CBNK scores 39.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 9.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (79/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CBNK would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score39.7
Fundamental Score65.2
ML Score46.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.9
6 Month
93.8
Primary
1 Year
98.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, low dollar volume
Base
36.3
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-0.6
Final
39.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)80.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)54.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 46

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+23.9%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.4%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.88)
Relative Strength vs Sector-2.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.050
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P83
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P88
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 81 relative to sector peers81/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 97th percentileP97
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (81.2) + 9% ML (96.7) + SHAP(+3.7) = 86.3โ€”
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.1%. Max drawdown 18% (-4.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 15pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-55.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #245 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CBNK39.79.025.3%18.8%$515M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Capital Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Capital Bank, N.A. that provides various banking products and services to businesses, not-for-profit associations, and entrepreneurs in the United States. It operates through Commercial Banking, Capital Bank Home Loans, and OpenSky segments. The company offers a range of deposit products and services, including checking and savings, time, interest bearing demand, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit; and credit cards. It originates residential mortgages and offers residential and commercial real estate, construction, and commercial business loans, as well as other consumer loans, such as term loans, car loans, and boat loans to small to medium-sized businesses, professionals, real estate investors, and small residential builders and individuals. It operates through four commercial bank branches, four mortgage offices, and one loan production office. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

CEO
Edward F. Barry
Employees
389
Beta
0.65
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.6%
High: $36.4
From 52W Low
+24.4%
Low: $24.69
Moving Averages
10-Day
$31.00
Below
20-Day
$31.40
Below
50-Day
$30.00
Above
200-Day
$31.20
Below
60-Day Support
$26.5
60-Day Resistance
$33.65
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 40/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.69%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.08x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
6
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$77M$75M$77M$75M
Gross Profit$54M$57M$56M$56M
Operating Income$15M$20M$17M$18M
Net Income$15M$15M$13M$14M
EPS (Diluted)$0.91$0.89$0.78$0.82
Gross Margin70.9%76.3%72.6%74.8%
Operating Margin20.0%26.5%22.3%24.3%
Net Margin19.6%20.1%17.1%18.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.0Revenue growth 25.3%Profit margin 18.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.0)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -11.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
50K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$1M/day
Float
0
11M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$515M
Range
0
47% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
66.1%
Outstanding Shares
17M
Bid-Ask Spread
47.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.