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OTEX

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Open Text Corporation

Conservative #567Aggressive #773Moderate RiskHigh 100
$24.48+2.04%
Day High$24.61
Day Low$23.91
Volume1.8M
Mkt Cap$6.1B
52W Low $2252W High $40
Market Cap
$6.3B
P/E Ratio
14.4
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-10.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-6.3%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.69

Why This Score

OTEX scores 50.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.69) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.0
Fundamental Score44.5
ML Score67.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.0
6 Month
73.8
Primary
1 Year
77.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
47.1
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Divergence
-1.1
Final
50.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

65AVG
Value85
Quality70
Growth45
Stability45
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.6% to +3.5%
Medium-term
-3.7% to +5.5%
Long-term
-4.8% to +7.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 67

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.6/100
Target Upside+37.5%
Coverage26 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+23.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector-4.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality-0.008
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
59%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P67
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P94
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 75 relative to sector peers75/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (74.8) + 9% ML (77.0) + SHAP(+3.1) = 78.1โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.4%. Max drawdown 35% (-10.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.7x โ€” elevated balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 8.4% (original: 9.5%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #135 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OTEX50.014.4-10.4%8.4%$6.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Open Text Corporation engages in the designs, develops, markets, and sells information management software and solutions. It offers content services; business network that manages data within the organization and outside the firewall; security and protection solutions for defending against cyber threats, and preparing for business continuity and response in the event of a breach; digital investigation and forensic security solutions; OpenText security solutions to address information cyber resilience needs; Carbonite and Webroot products; and OpenText Information Management software platform. The company also provides eDiscovery platform that provides forensics and unstructured data analytics; OpenText Developer Cloud; key developer API services; AI and analytics that leverages structured or unstructured data; digital process automation solutions, which enables organizations to transform into digital data-driven businesses; and OpenText Digital Experience platform. In addition, it offers customer support programs, including access to software upgrades, a knowledge base, discussions, product information, and an online mechanism to post and review trouble tickets; and consulting and learning services relating to the implementation, training, and integration of its licensed product offerings, as well as cloud services. The company serves organizations, enterprise and mid-market companies, public sector agencies, small and medium-sized businesses, and direct consumers in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It has strategic partnerships with SAP SE, Google Cloud, Amazon AWS, Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Salesforce.com Corporation, Accenture plc, ATOS, Capgemini Technology Services SAS, Cognizant Technology Solutions U.S. Corp., Deloitte Consulting LLP, and Tata Consultancy Services. Open Text Corporation was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada.

CEO
Christopher James McGourlay
Employees
21,700
Beta
1.09
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-38.6%
High: $39.9
From 52W Low
+9.1%
Low: $22.44
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.30
Above
20-Day
$24.70
Below
50-Day
$29.00
Below
200-Day
$31.70
Below
60-Day Support
$22.44
60-Day Resistance
$34.1
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 15/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.58%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.36x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
28
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$1.3B$1.3B$1.3B$1.3B
Gross Profit$982M$938M$848M$784M
Operating Income$292M$270M$265M$214M
Net Income$168M$147M$29M$93M
EPS (Diluted)$0.66$0.57$0.11$0.35
Gross Margin74.0%72.8%63.6%62.7%
Operating Margin22.0%21.0%19.9%17.1%
Net Margin12.7%11.4%2.2%7.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 14.4Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 14.4)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 93/100Score impact: -11.6pt

Volume
100
1.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
92
$37M/day
Float
100
246M shares
Mkt Cap
70
$6.3B
Range
99
78% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$44.03$55.2522.6%Narrow
2022$24.91$48.4664.2%Wide
2023$29.40$43.2538.1%Wide
2024$27.05$45.4750.8%Wide
2025$22.79$39.9054.6%Wide
3-Year Range
66.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.3%
Outstanding Shares
251M
Bid-Ask Spread
78.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.