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APP

💻 Technology

AppLovin Corporation

Conservative #447Aggressive #139High RiskMixed 58ML↑ 21pt
$421.63+7.22%
Day High$427.18
Day Low$391.72
Volume5.5M
Mkt Cap$142.6B
52W Low $20152W High $746
Market Cap
$141.6B
P/E Ratio
42.5
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
16.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
111.0%
Profit Margin
57.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.66

Why This Score

APP scores 54.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 249.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 57.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (20%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • Large-cap ($142B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 42.5x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (24.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.66) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.9 points) applied. APP's rank of #447 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.5
Fundamental Score47.2
ML Score75.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.3
6 Month
74.1
Primary
1 Year
78.0

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
77
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
52.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-1.9
Final
54.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)75.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)36.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 75

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.2/100
Target Upside+82.2%
Coverage26 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score77.2/100
News Volume9 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+38.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector+16.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.108
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P65
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P30
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P39
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (56.8) + 9% ML (77.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 61.1—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($141.6B market cap)+3.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.6pt (ML 21pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 24.2%. Max drawdown 46% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (111%) far exceeds revenue growth (16.4%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.7x — elevated balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 38.8% (original: 58.2%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #102 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APP54.542.516.4%57.4%$141.6B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

AppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps in the United States and internationally. The company's software solutions include AppDiscovery, a marketing software solution, which matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions; Adjust, an analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data; and MAX, an in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction. Its business clients include various advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and others. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

CEO
Adam Arash Foroughi
Employees
1,533
Beta
2.49
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-43.5%
High: $745.61
From 52W Low
+110.3%
Low: $200.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$402.10
Above
20-Day
$432.70
Below
50-Day
$556.60
Below
200-Day
$507.50
Below
60-Day Support
$359
60-Day Resistance
$738.01
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 17/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-16.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+19.03%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.39x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
18
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.7B$1.4B$1.3B$1.5B
Gross Profit$1.5B$1.2B$1.1B$1.2B
Operating Income$1.3B$1.1B$958M$663M
Net Income$1.1B$836M$820M$576M
EPS (Diluted)$3.24$2.45$2.39$1.67
Gross Margin88.9%87.6%87.7%81.7%
Operating Margin76.9%76.8%76.1%44.7%
Net Margin66.5%59.5%65.1%38.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 16.4%Profit margin 57.4%Earnings quality grade C

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -2.6pt

Volume
100
5.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$2.0B/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
100
$141.6B
Range
100
272% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$49.41$116.0980.6%Wide
2022$9.14$98.14165.9%Wide
2023$9.22$45.11132.1%Wide
2024$37.40$417.64167.1%Wide
2025$200.50$745.61115.2%Wide
3-Year Range
195.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
272.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.