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SHOP

💻 Technology

Shopify Inc.

Conservative #289Aggressive #53Moderate RiskModerate 63
$120.31+2.89%
Day High$123.75
Day Low$117.64
Volume9.5M
Mkt Cap$157.0B
52W Low $7052W High $182
Market Cap
$147.1B
P/E Ratio
118.6
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
25.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
1429.5%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.10

Why This Score

SHOP scores 60.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 17.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 22.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.10) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Large-cap ($147B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 118.6x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (11.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.6
Fundamental Score52.6
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.1
6 Month
63.8
Primary
1 Year
67.2

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
61.1
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-4.1
Final
60.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value40
Quality85
Growth90
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)41.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.7/100
Target Upside+41.4%
Coverage63 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality+0.004
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P7
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P24
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (63.2) + 9% ML (66.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 65.9
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.7%. Max drawdown 35% (-10.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($147.1B market cap)+3.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 11pp gap between net and operating margin; Earnings growth (1430%) massively exceeds revenue growth (25.8%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 55x — earnings quality suspectFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #68 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SHOP60.6118.625.8%22.7%$147.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy63 analysts
Buy: 40Hold: 20Sell: 3
Price Target
$165consensus
Low $115Median $165High $200
+37.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, new buyers and build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, manage cash, payments and transactions, and access financing. It also sells custom themes and apps, and registration of domain names; and merchant solutions, which include accepting payments, shipping and fulfillment, and securing working capital. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.

CEO
Tobias Lutke
Employees
8,100
Beta
2.82
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34%
High: $182.19
From 52W Low
+72.3%
Low: $69.84
Moving Averages
10-Day
$118.20
Above
20-Day
$121.50
Below
50-Day
$144.40
Below
200-Day
$138.90
Below
60-Day Support
$104.92
60-Day Resistance
$172.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 28/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.45%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
18
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.7B$2.8B$2.7B$2.4B
Gross Profit$1.7B$1.4B$1.3B$1.2B
Operating Income$631M$343M$291M$203M
Net Income$743M$264M$906M$-682M
EPS (Diluted)$0.58$0.20$0.69$-0.53
Gross Margin46.1%48.9%48.6%49.5%
Operating Margin17.2%12.1%10.9%8.6%
Net Margin20.2%9.3%33.8%-28.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 25.8%Profit margin 22.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -4.7pt

Volume
100
10.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$1.2B/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
100
$147.1B
Range
100
161% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$100.51$176.2954.8%Wide
2022$23.63$139.37142%Wide
2023$34.65$79.9979.1%Wide
2024$48.56$120.7285.3%Wide
2025$69.84$182.1989.2%Wide
3-Year Range
136.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
161.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.