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47

FROG

💻 Technology

JFrog Ltd.

Conservative #630Aggressive #374Low RiskLow 18ML↑ 41pt
$38.76+4.22%
Day High$39.72
Day Low$36.99
Volume5.7M
Mkt Cap$4.6B
52W Low $2752W High $70
Market Cap
$6.1B
P/E Ratio
47.2
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
24.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-3.7%
Profit Margin
-13.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

FROG scores 47.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 47.2x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, FROG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.6
Fundamental Score48.7
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.9
6 Month
87.0
Primary
1 Year
91.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
86
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
47.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+2.0
Conviction
-3.1
Divergence
-0.6
Final
47.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

60AVG
Value55
Quality40
Growth75
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.5% to +21.5%
Medium-term
+21.5% to +32.0%
Long-term
+31.0% to +45.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.6/100
Target Upside+92.3%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score85.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+35.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.12)
Relative Strength vs Sector+37.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality+0.336
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P80
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P25
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P35
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 96th percentileP96
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (54.7) + 9% ML (95.9) + SHAP(+1.8) = 60.2—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 12.9%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.7 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.1pt (conviction=18)—
Divergence penalty: -4.7pt (ML 41pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Country risk: Israel -6.5pt [structural: -2pt, macro: -4.5pt] (Active regional conflict, but strong legal system)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #144 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FROG47.647.224.1%-13.5%$6.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy21 analysts
Buy: 19Hold: 2
Price Target
$69consensus
Low $52Median $70High $80
+76.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

JFrog Ltd. provides DevOps platform in the United States. The company's products include JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage their software packages at any scale; JFrog Pipelines, an integration/continuous delivery tool for automating and orchestrating the movement of software packages; JFrog Xray, which scan JFrog Artifactory; and JFrog Distribution that provides software package distribution with enterprise-grade performance. Its products include JFrog Artifactory Edge that utilizes and leverages metadata from JFrog Artifactory to facilitate the transfer of the incremental changes in software packages from their previous versions; JFrog Mission Control, a platform control panel that provides a view of moving pieces of an organization's software supply chain workflow; JFrog Insight, a DevOps intelligence tool; and JFrog Connect, a device management solution that allows companies to manage software updates and monitor performance across IoT device fleets from anywhere in the world. The company's products also comprise JFrog Pro, JFrog Pro Team, JFrog Pro X, JFrog Enterprise, JFrog Enterprise X, and JFrog Enterprise Plus products that offer ongoing updates, upgrades, and bug fixes, as well as cluster configuration, multi-site replication, and SLA support. It serves technology, financial services, retail, healthcare, and telecommunications organizations. JFrog Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

CEO
Shlomi Ben Haim
Employees
1,600
Beta
1.16
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
33.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-45%
High: $70.43
From 52W Low
+43.6%
Low: $27
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.10
Below
20-Day
$49.00
Below
50-Day
$56.60
Below
200-Day
$50.00
Below
60-Day Support
$34.05
60-Day Resistance
$70.43
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+16.72%
Rising
Volume Ratio
2.14x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
4
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$145M$137M$127M$122M
Gross Profit$113M$106M$97M$92M
Operating Income$-23M$-22M$-26M$-23M
Net Income$-15M$-16M$-22M$-19M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.13$-0.14$-0.19$-0.16
Gross Margin77.6%77.4%76.3%75.3%
Operating Margin-16.1%-15.8%-20.4%-18.8%
Net Margin-10.5%-12.0%-17.0%-15.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 24.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -20.9pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$88M/day
Float
100
105M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$6.1B
Range
100
161% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.65$59.8973.7%Wide
2022$16.36$31.4863.2%Wide
2023$17.11$35.3569.5%Wide
2024$22.91$48.8172.2%Wide
2025$27.00$70.4389.2%Wide
3-Year Range
121.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
88.2%
Outstanding Shares
120M
Bid-Ask Spread
161.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.