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51

AMPH

🏥 Healthcare

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #610Aggressive #486Moderate RiskML↑ 17pt
$26.49-5.29%
Day High$28.17
Day Low$26.27
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $2052W High $33
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
11.9
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
13.6%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
16.0%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.85

Why This Score

AMPH scores 50.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (15.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. AMPH's rank of #610 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.7
Fundamental Score46.1
ML Score59.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.3
6 Month
83.0
Primary
1 Year
87.4

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.3B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
63
Grade B
Base
46.7
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.4
Final
50.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

67AVG
Value82
Quality53
Growth66
Stability64
Investment69

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)45.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 59

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside+8.3%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.2%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.04)
Relative Strength vs Sector-24.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.002
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
34%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P61
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P94
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 46 relative to sector peers46/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 59th percentileP59
Blended score: 80% fundamental (46) + 20% ML (59) = 48.748.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 28% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.3B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #83 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AMPH50.711.913.6%15.4%$1.3B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a bio-pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal products in the United States, China, and France. The company operates through two segments, Finished Pharmaceutical Products and API. It offers Primatene Mist, an over-the-counter epinephrine inhalation product for the temporary relief of mild symptoms of intermittent asthma; Enoxaparin, a low molecular weight heparin to prevent and treat deep vein thrombosis; Naloxone for opioid overdose; Glucagon for injection emergency kit; and Cortrosyn, a lyophilized powder for use as a diagnostic agent in the screening of patients with adrenocortical insufficiency. The company also provides Amphadase, a bovine-sourced hyaluronidase injection to absorb and disperse other injected drugs; Epinephrine injection for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions; lidocaine jelly, an anesthetic product for urological procedures; lidocaine topical solution for various procedures; phytonadione injection, a vitamin K1 injection for newborn babies; emergency syringe products for emergency use in hospital settings; morphine injection for use with patient controlled analgesia pumps; and lorazepam injection for surgery and medical procedures. In addition, it offers neostigmine methylsulfate injection to treat myasthenia gravis and to reverse the effects of muscle relaxants; and Isoproterenol hydrochloride injection for mild or transient episodes of heart block. Further, the company distributes recombinant human insulin active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and porcine insulin API. It serves hospitals, care facilities, alternate care sites, clinics, and doctors' offices. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Rancho Cucamonga, California.

CEO
Yongfeng Zhang
Employees
2,028
Beta
0.88
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
33.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-17.8%
High: $32.22
From 52W Low
+29.9%
Low: $20.39
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.00
Below
20-Day
$28.00
Below
50-Day
$27.30
Below
200-Day
$26.00
Above
60-Day Support
$25.16
60-Day Resistance
$29.52
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 22/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.24%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
48
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$183M$192M$174M$171M
Gross Profit$86M$99M$86M$85M
Operating Income$36M$25M$42M$37M
Net Income$24M$17M$31M$25M
EPS (Diluted)$0.51$0.37$0.64$0.51
Gross Margin46.8%51.4%49.6%50.0%
Operating Margin19.4%13.2%24.2%21.9%
Net Margin13.3%9.0%17.8%14.8%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 11.9Revenue growth 13.6%Profit margin 15.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.9)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 63/100Score impact: +1.9pt

Volume
65
351K avg/day
Dollar Vol
59
$10M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.3B
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score63/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$16.91$23.8534.1%Moderate
2022$22.07$44.4667.3%Wide
2023$27.58$67.6684.2%Wide
2024$36.48$65.9257.5%Wide
2025$20.39$39.0162.7%Wide
3-Year Range
107.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
75.7%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.