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61

COLL

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.

Conservative #340Aggressive #139Low Risk
$44.22-3.34%
Day High$45.18
Day Low$41.00
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $2352W High $51
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
24.3
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
11.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
43.7%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
3.41

Why This Score

COLL scores 60.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 24.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (88/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (12.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 3.41) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. COLL's rank of #340 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.7
Fundamental Score56.4
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.9
6 Month
78.1
Primary
1 Year
82.2

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
3 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-397.8%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $1.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.4x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
74
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
56.7
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.2
Final
60.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

64AVG
Value57
Quality55
Growth81
Stability60
Investment69

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.7% to +6.3%
Medium-term
+3.5% to +10.6%
Long-term
+5.3% to +14.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.6/100
Target Upside+29.6%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score74.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+39.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.31)
Relative Strength vs Sector+33.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.7)
Momentum Quality+0.520
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P19
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P98
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (68) = 58.758.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 10% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.2pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-397.8%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.4x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #42 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
COLL60.724.311.4%7.7%$1.4B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines for pain management. Its portfolio includes Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release formulations of tapentadol; and Xtampza ER for the management of pain severe enough to require daily, around-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment. The company was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.

CEO
Vikram Karnani
Employees
357
Beta
0.65
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-12.9%
High: $50.79
From 52W Low
+90.4%
Low: $23.23
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.30
Below
20-Day
$46.00
Below
50-Day
$46.80
Below
200-Day
$38.30
Above
60-Day Support
$41
60-Day Resistance
$50.79
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.71x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$205M$209M$188M$178M
Gross Profit$128M$129M$108M$97M
Operating Income$59M$64M$35M$22M
Net Income$17M$32M$12M$2M
EPS (Diluted)$0.48$0.84$0.34$0.07
Gross Margin62.5%61.7%57.7%54.8%
Operating Margin28.8%30.4%18.7%12.2%
Net Margin8.3%15.0%6.4%1.4%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 24.3Revenue growth 11.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 24.3)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 73/100Score impact: -15.2pt

Volume
78
479K avg/day
Dollar Vol
81
$21M/day
Float
59
29M shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.4B
Range
100
119% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$17.22$26.9043.9%Wide
2022$14.04$24.3653.8%Wide
2023$20.83$31.1239.6%Wide
2024$28.47$42.2939.1%Wide
2025$23.23$50.7974.5%Wide
3-Year Range
83.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.2%
Outstanding Shares
32M
Bid-Ask Spread
119.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.