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EMBC

🏥 Healthcare

Embecta Corp.

Conservative #722Aggressive #1221Moderate RiskHigh 100
$10.32+0.39%
Day High$10.52
Day Low$10.12
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$611M
52W Low $952W High $16
Market Cap
$635M
P/E Ratio
4.5
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
-3.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
21.8%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

EMBC scores 44.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 4.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -2.32) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-6.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.6
Fundamental Score55.6
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.5
6 Month
87.8
Primary
1 Year
92.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.6B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
44
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
44.9
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-4.3
Final
44.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)43.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.1% to +8.1%
Medium-term
+2.0% to +12.7%
Long-term
+3.7% to +18.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score43.8/100
Target Upside+111.4%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.75)
Relative Strength vs Sector-45.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.151
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
33%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P15
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P99
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 82 relative to sector peers82/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (82.0) + 9% ML (83.1) + SHAP(+3.7) = 85.8
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.8%. Max drawdown 28% (-8.0 pts). Price momentum -21% (-3.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-53.5%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $0.6B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 25.5% (original: 29.3%). Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic has ~12% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~30%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #110 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EMBC44.64.5-3.8%12.9%$635M
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Sell4 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 1Sell: 2
Price Target
$23consensus
Low $20Median $23High $25
+118.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Embecta Corp., a medical device company, focuses on the provision of various solutions to enhance the health and wellbeing of people living with diabetes. Its products include pen needles, syringes, and safety devices, as well as digital applications to assist people with managing their diabetes. The company primarily sells its products to wholesalers and distributors in the United States and internationally. Embecta Corp. was founded in 1924 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey. Embecta Corp.(NasdaqGS:EMBC) operates independently of Becton, Dickinson and Company as of April 1, 2022.

CEO
Devdatt Kurdikar
Employees
2,000
Beta
1.06
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-33.6%
High: $15.55
From 52W Low
+12.2%
Low: $9.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.30
Above
20-Day
$10.50
Below
50-Day
$11.40
Below
200-Day
$12.20
Below
60-Day Support
$9.91
60-Day Resistance
$13.45
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 17/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-15.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.44%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.24x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
26
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$261M$264M$296M$259M
Gross Profit$176M$156M$195M$162M
Operating Income$97M$64M$106M$79M
Net Income$44M$26M$46M$24M
EPS (Diluted)$0.74$0.45$0.78$0.40
Gross Margin67.2%59.1%66.0%62.4%
Operating Margin37.2%24.4%35.9%30.3%
Net Margin16.9%10.0%15.4%9.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 4.5Profit margin 12.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 4.5)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 72/100Score impact: +1.3pt

Volume
90
761K avg/day
Dollar Vol
56
$8M/day
Float
83
58M shares
Mkt Cap
33
$635M
Range
95
69% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
59M
Bid-Ask Spread
69.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.