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43

AHCO

🏥 Healthcare

AdaptHealth Corp.

Conservative #809Aggressive #957Low RiskModerate 72
$9.08-2.68%
Day High$9.31
Day Low$8.84
Volume1.9M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $752W High $12
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
17.5
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
1.9%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
113.3%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.18

Why This Score

AHCO scores 43.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (72/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.18) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.8 points) applied. AHCO's rank of #809 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.5
Fundamental Score44.6
ML Score33.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.7
6 Month
80.1
Primary
1 Year
84.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-580.6%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade B
Base
39.5
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Final
43.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

64AVG
Value81
Quality32
Growth72
Stability64
Investment73

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.6% to +6.1%
Medium-term
+3.0% to +9.9%
Long-term
+4.4% to +13.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 33

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+101.3%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-17.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.72)
Relative Strength vs Sector-34.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.081
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
48%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P89
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P97
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 33th percentileP33
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (33) = 42.342.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-580.6%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Value trap penalty: -0.8ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #121 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AHCO43.517.51.9%2.8%$1.4B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States. The company provides sleep therapy equipment, supplies, and related services, such as CPAP and bi-PAP services to individuals suffering from obstructive sleep apnea; medical devices and supplies, including continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps to patients for the treatment of diabetes; HME to patients discharged from acute care and other facilities; oxygen and related chronic therapy services in the home; and other HME devices and supplies on behalf of chronically ill patients with wound care, urological, incontinence, ostomy, and nutritional supply needs. It serves beneficiaries of Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance payors. AdaptHealth Corp. is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Toby Scott Barnhart
Employees
10,500
Beta
1.75
Industry
Medical - Devices
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
32.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.9%
High: $11.63
From 52W Low
+27.7%
Low: $7.11
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.90
Below
20-Day
$10.10
Below
50-Day
$10.20
Below
200-Day
$9.50
Below
60-Day Support
$8.51
60-Day Resistance
$10.93
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.29%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.44x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$846M$820M$592M$580M
Gross Profit$162M$152M$-54M$-77M
Operating Income$54M$66M$79M$23M
Net Income$-103M$22M$15M$-7M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.73$0.16$0.10$-0.05
Gross Margin19.2%18.5%-9.1%-13.3%
Operating Margin6.4%8.0%13.4%4.0%
Net Margin-12.1%2.7%2.5%-1.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 17.5Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.5)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 70/100Score impact: -3.8pt

Volume
100
1.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$10M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.4B
Range
92
64% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.24$38.9472.4%Wide
2022$11.40$27.4882.7%Wide
2023$6.37$22.94113.1%Wide
2024$6.46$11.9059.3%Wide
2025$7.11$11.6348.2%Wide
3-Year Range
113.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
64.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.