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AGYS

💻 Technology

Agilysys, Inc.

Conservative #920Aggressive #1224Moderate RiskModerate 79
$71.00-1.35%
Day High$72.79
Day Low$69.96
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $6452W High $145
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
72.3
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
16.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-73.1%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.11

Why This Score

AGYS scores 37.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (79/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 72.3x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (16.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score37.7
Fundamental Score45.2
ML Score14.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
59.3
6 Month
66.3
Primary
1 Year
69.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
72
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
67
Grade B
Base
36.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-2.4
Final
37.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)39.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)39.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 14

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+91.1%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+25.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.02)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.004
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P64
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P15
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P39
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (58.6) + 9% ML (69.0) + SHAP(+1.8) = 61.3
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.2%. Max drawdown 35% (-10.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.2B market cap)-4.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-101.5%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 6.5% (original: 7.3%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #208 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AGYS37.772.316.1%9.8%$2.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 8
Price Target
$139consensus
Low $120Median $140High $155
+95.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Agilysys, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a developer and marketer of hardware and software products and services to the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and India. It offers point of sale, property management systems, inventory and procurement, payments, reservations management, and seat solutions to enhance guest experience. The company also provides technical software support, maintenance, and subscription services; and professional services. It offers its solutions for gaming, hotels, resorts and cruise, corporate foodservice management, restaurants, universities, stadium, and healthcare. The company was formerly known as Pioneer-Standard Electronics, Inc. and changed its name to Agilysys, Inc. in 2003. Agilysys, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.

CEO
Ramesh Srinivasan
Employees
1,900
Beta
0.33
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
17.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-51.1%
High: $145.25
From 52W Low
+11.4%
Low: $63.71
Moving Averages
10-Day
$78.00
Below
20-Day
$82.10
Below
50-Day
$102.70
Below
200-Day
$109.90
Below
60-Day Support
$69.96
60-Day Resistance
$129.32
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 24/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-35.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.24%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.19x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
21
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$80M$79M$77M$74M
Gross Profit$48M$49M$47M$45M
Operating Income$9M$14M$5M$5M
Net Income$10M$12M$5M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.35$0.41$0.17$0.14
Gross Margin59.5%61.7%61.7%60.7%
Operating Margin11.0%17.8%5.9%7.1%
Net Margin12.3%14.8%6.4%5.3%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 16.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 67/100Score impact: -0.1pt

Volume
55
254K avg/day
Dollar Vol
77
$18M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
100
128% spread
Composite Liquidity Score67/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$40.09$64.0946.1%Wide
2022$31.49$82.1789.2%Wide
2023$62.00$91.6138.6%Wide
2024$73.52$142.6464%Wide
2025$63.71$145.2578%Wide
3-Year Range
80.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
128.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.