Back to Dashboard
21

VERX

💻 Technology

Vertex, Inc.

Conservative #1296Aggressive #1249High RiskLow 16ML↑ 42pt
$13.39+0.98%
Day High$13.68
Day Low$12.95
Volume2.3M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $1252W High $45
Market Cap
$2.0B
P/E Ratio
309.3
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
12.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
113.7%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.39

Why This Score

VERX scores 20.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 309.3x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (11.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.39) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -10.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, VERX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score20.8
Fundamental Score29.5
ML Score2.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.3
6 Month
83.0
Primary
1 Year
87.4

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-2255.7%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade B
Base
21.9
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Conviction
-3.3
Divergence
-1.9
Final
20.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)25.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.7% to +8.8%
Medium-term
+6.2% to +13.9%
Long-term
+9.7% to +20.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 2

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.7/100
Target Upside+80.8%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.84)
Relative Strength vs Sector-64.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.193
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P2
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P46
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 46 relative to sector peers46/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (46.5) + 9% ML (88.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 52.7—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.0B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.3pt (conviction=16)—
Divergence penalty: -4.9pt (ML 42pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 11.9%. Max drawdown 68% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -61% (-10.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (114%) far exceeds revenue growth (12.2%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-2255.7%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 0.8% (original: 0.9%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #273 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VERX20.8309.312.2%1.0%$2.0B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy17 analysts
Buy: 10Hold: 7
Price Target
$22consensus
Low $13Median $20High $37
+62.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vertex, Inc. provides tax technology solutions for corporations in retail, communication, leasing, and manufacturing industries in the United States and internationally. It offers tax determination, compliance and reporting, tax data management, document management, pre-built integration, and industry-specific solutions. The company sells its software products through software license and software as a service subscriptions. It also provides implementation and training services in connection with its software license and cloud subscriptions, transaction tax returns outsourcing, and other tax-related services. Vertex, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Christopher David Young
Employees
1,900
Beta
0.59
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-69.3%
High: $43.56
From 52W Low
+12.8%
Low: $11.87
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.70
Above
20-Day
$14.70
Below
50-Day
$17.80
Below
200-Day
$26.00
Below
60-Day Support
$11.87
60-Day Resistance
$20.82
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 0/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-48.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-18.65%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$195M$192M$185M$177M
Gross Profit$119M$121M$121M$113M
Operating Income$2M$4M$-4M$4M
Net Income$-7M$4M$-961,000$11M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.04$0.02$-0.01$0.07
Gross Margin61.2%63.1%65.7%63.8%
Operating Margin0.8%2.2%-2.1%2.5%
Net Margin-3.6%2.1%-0.5%6.3%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 12.2%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 77/100Score impact: -9.1pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
81
$22M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
58
$2.0B
Range
100
276% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.82$36.3678.7%Wide
2022$9.44$19.3068.6%Wide
2023$11.92$30.0086.3%Wide
2024$23.31$57.7485%Wide
2025$18.54$60.71106.4%Wide
3-Year Range
134.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
276.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.