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BLKB

💻 Technology

Blackbaud, Inc.

Conservative #488Aggressive #528Moderate RiskModerate 68
$47.84+1.33%
Day High$48.01
Day Low$46.48
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $4652W High $75
Market Cap
$2.4B
P/E Ratio
20.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-2.3%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
140.6%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
13.16

Why This Score

BLKB scores 52.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 146.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 13.16) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.5 points) applied. BLKB's rank of #488 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.8
Fundamental Score48.4
ML Score66.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.2
6 Month
69.5
Primary
1 Year
73.2

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 13.2x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
30
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
52
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
49.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-0.4
Final
52.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)46.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)58.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.6% to +3.5%
Medium-term
-3.6% to +5.6%
Long-term
-4.6% to +7.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 66

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score52.1/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage24 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score29.9/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.97)
Relative Strength vs Sector-29.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality-0.187
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
41%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P14
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P57
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P85
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 78 relative to sector peers78/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 72th percentileP72
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (78.4) + 9% ML (72.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 80.2—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.3%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.7 pts). Price momentum -26% (-4.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.4B market cap)-4.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (141%) far exceeds revenue growth (-2.3%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-131.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #113 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BLKB52.820.0-2.3%10.2%$2.4B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold24 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 16Sell: 3
Price Target
$56consensus
Low $50Median $58High $60
+17.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Blackbaud, Inc. provides cloud software solutions to higher education institutions, K–12 schools, healthcare organizations, faith communities, arts and cultural organizations, foundations, companies, and individual change agents in the United States and internationally. The company offers fundraising and relationship management solutions, such as Blackbaud Raiser's Edge NXT and Blackbaud CRM, Blackbaud eTapestry, Blackbaud TeamRaiser, JustGiving, and Blackbaud Guided Fundraising and Blackbaud Volunteer Network Fundraising; marketing and engagement solutions, including Blackbaud Luminate Online, Blackbaud Online Express, and Blackbaud School Website System; and financial management solutions comprising Blackbaud Financial Edge NXT, Blackbaud Tuition Management, and Blackbaud Financial Aid Management. It also provides grant and award management solutions, consisting of Blackbaud Grantmaking and Blackbaud Award Management; organizational and program management, such as Blackbaud Student Information System, Blackbaud Learning Management System, Blackbaud Enrollment Management System, Blackbaud Altru, and Blackbaud Church Management; social responsibility solutions, which includes YourCause GrantsConnect and YourCause CSRconnect; Blackbaud Merchant Services and Blackbaud Purchase Cards payment services; and Blackbaud's Intelligence for Good solutions, as well as donor acquisition, prospect research, data enrichment, and benchmarking and performance management solutions and services. It sells its solutions and related services through its direct sales force. Blackbaud, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina.

CEO
Michael Gianoni
Employees
2,600
Beta
1.10
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-36.1%
High: $74.88
From 52W Low
+4.7%
Low: $45.71
Moving Averages
10-Day
$48.40
Below
20-Day
$49.20
Below
50-Day
$56.00
Below
200-Day
$61.60
Below
60-Day Support
$45.71
60-Day Resistance
$64.84
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 15/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.55%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.48x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$295M$281M$281M$271M
Gross Profit$172M$167M$168M$156M
Operating Income$59M$55M$57M$20M
Net Income$37M$47M$26M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.77$0.98$0.54$0.10
Gross Margin58.2%59.6%59.7%57.6%
Operating Margin20.0%19.4%20.1%7.5%
Net Margin12.4%16.9%9.2%1.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 20.0Profit margin 10.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.0)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 72/100Score impact: -7.2pt

Volume
72
417K avg/day
Dollar Vol
79
$19M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.4B
Range
92
64% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
74.0%
Outstanding Shares
48M
Bid-Ask Spread
64.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.