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PTRN

💻 Technology

Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock

Conservative #983Aggressive #860Moderate RiskHigh 87
$10.71+11.68%
Day High$10.75
Day Low$9.54
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $1052W High $20
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
31.5%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
64.4%
Profit Margin
-6.9%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

PTRN scores 34.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (87/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.9
Fundamental Score40.1
ML Score16.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.1
6 Month
61.6
Primary
1 Year
64.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
71
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
74
Grade B
Base
33.2
SHAP
+0.4
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+2.0
Divergence
-1.4
Final
34.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.7% to +2.3%
Medium-term
-2.2% to +3.9%
Long-term
-2.7% to +5.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 16

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+108.7%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P90
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P55
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (58.2) + 9% ML (62.9) + SHAP(+0.4) = 59.0
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.0%Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.0pt (conviction=87)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (151.5%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #225 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PTRN34.9N/A31.5%-6.9%$1.6B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy5 analysts
Buy: 5
Price Target
$20consensus
Low $17Median $20High $23
+85.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

A tech-enabled ecommerce accelerator. Pattern helps brands grow sales across global online marketplaces (including Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, etc.) via technology, analytics, logistics, advertising & content tools; they also purchase, distribute, and sell products on behalf of brands in many markets.

CEO
David Wright
Employees
2,100
Beta
0.00
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-46.7%
High: $20.1
From 52W Low
+20.1%
Low: $8.92
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.40
Above
20-Day
$11.90
Below
50-Day
$12.50
Below
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$8.92
60-Day Resistance
$16.51

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$640M$598M$540M$515M
Gross Profit$279M$257M$236M$217M
Operating Income$-60M$30M$29M$23M
Net Income$-223M$24M$23M$18M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.27$0.09$0.09$0.10
Gross Margin43.7%42.9%43.6%42.0%
Operating Margin-9.4%5.0%5.4%4.5%
Net Margin-34.9%4.0%4.2%3.5%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 31.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 74/100Score impact: -10.4pt

Volume
98
940K avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
62
32M shares
Mkt Cap
50
$1.6B
Range
100
113% spread
Composite Liquidity Score74/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
20.9%
Outstanding Shares
155M
Bid-Ask Spread
113.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.