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XPEL

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

XPEL, Inc.

Conservative #297Aggressive #460Low Risk
$45.06-4.15%
Day High$47.01
Day Low$44.49
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $2452W High $56
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
30.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
6.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-13.8%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.09

Why This Score

XPEL scores 63.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.09) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (99/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. XPEL's rank of #297 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.1
Fundamental Score62.6
ML Score55.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.2
6 Month
73.9
Primary
1 Year
77.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
72
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
60
Grade B
Base
59.1
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Final
63.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

59AVG
Value52
Quality57
Growth36
Stability80
Investment72

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.1% to +8.0%
Medium-term
+5.6% to +13.0%
Long-term
+8.1% to +18.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 55

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+16.6%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+16.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.73)
Relative Strength vs Sector+59.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.4)
Momentum Quality+0.540
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P62
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P29
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 55th percentileP55
Blended score: 80% fundamental (63) + 20% ML (55) = 61.161.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 11% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #19 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
XPEL63.130.36.1%10.1%$1.4B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

XPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software. It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels. The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

CEO
Ryan L. Pape
Employees
1,143
Beta
1.26
Industry
Auto - Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.4%
High: $55.91
From 52W Low
+85.8%
Low: $24.25
Moving Averages
10-Day
$50.40
Below
20-Day
$51.60
Below
50-Day
$52.10
Below
200-Day
$40.90
Above
60-Day Support
$41.76
60-Day Resistance
$55.91
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 68/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.23%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.31x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
78
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$122M$125M$125M$104M
Gross Profit$51M$52M$54M$44M
Operating Income$15M$17M$19M$11M
Net Income$13M$13M$16M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.48$0.47$0.59$0.31
Gross Margin41.9%41.8%42.9%42.3%
Operating Margin12.7%13.4%15.5%10.7%
Net Margin11.0%10.3%13.1%8.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalProfit margin 10.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 60/100Score impact: -2.9pt

Volume
53
235K avg/day
Dollar Vol
63
$12M/day
Float
54
24M shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.4B
Range
100
131% spread
Composite Liquidity Score60/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$44.11$103.8480.7%Wide
2022$39.80$87.0174.5%Wide
2023$40.77$87.4672.8%Wide
2024$30.75$60.4965.2%Wide
2025$24.25$53.0874.6%Wide
3-Year Range
113.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
85.4%
Outstanding Shares
28M
Bid-Ask Spread
131.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.