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66

MCRI

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

Conservative #219Aggressive #527Low RiskHigh 100
$95.96+0.06%
Day High$96.07
Day Low$95.57
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $7052W High $114
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
17.2
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
4.4%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
39.3%
Profit Margin
18.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

MCRI scores 66.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.7% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score66.1
Fundamental Score65.8
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.1
6 Month
78.3
Primary
1 Year
82.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
42
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
62.1
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.5
Final
66.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)73.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)53.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+13.2%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector+2.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality+0.027
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P71
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 87 relative to sector peers87/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 83th percentileP83
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (87.0) + 9% ML (82.8) + SHAP(+5.0) = 91.6
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.9%. Max drawdown 15% (-2.8 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.7B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-24.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #12 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
BKNG64.524.513.4%20.1%$136.8B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada. The company also owns and operates the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Black Hawk, Colorado. As of December 31, 2021, its Atlantis Casino Resort Spa featured approximately 61,000 square feet of casino space; 818 guest rooms and suites; 8 food outlets; 2 gourmet coffee and pastry bars; a 30,000 square-foot health spa and salon with an enclosed pool; 2 retail outlets offering clothing and gift shop merchandise; an 8,000 square-foot family entertainment center; and approximately 52,000 square feet of banquet, convention, and meeting room space. The company's Atlantis Casino Resort Spa also featured approximately 1,400 slot and video poker machines; approximately 37 table games, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and others; a race and sports book; a 24-hour live keno lounge; and a poker room. In addition, its Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk featured approximately 60,000 square feet of casino space; approximately 1,100 slot machines; approximately 40 table games; 10 bars and lounges; 4 dining options; 516 guest rooms and suites; banquet and meeting room space; a retail store; a concierge lounge; an upscale spa and pool facility; and a nine-story parking structure with approximately 1,350 spaces, as well as valet parking with a total parking capacity to approximately 1,500 spaces. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Reno, Nevada.

CEO
John Farahi
Employees
2,900
Beta
1.34
Industry
Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.7%
High: $113.88
From 52W Low
+37.1%
Low: $69.99
Moving Averages
10-Day
$94.90
Above
20-Day
$95.00
Above
50-Day
$94.80
Above
200-Day
$94.90
Above
60-Day Support
$88.34
60-Day Resistance
$101.07
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 62/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.36%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$140M$143M$137M$125M
Gross Profit$77M$66M$79M$66M
Operating Income$29M$38M$35M$25M
Net Income$23M$32M$27M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$1.25$1.69$1.44$1.05
Gross Margin55.3%46.4%57.9%52.8%
Operating Margin20.8%26.7%25.5%20.2%
Net Margin16.4%22.1%19.7%15.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 17.2Profit margin 18.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.2)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 42/100Score impact: +13.1pt

Volume
16
98K avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
25
12M shares
Mkt Cap
54
$1.8B
Range
91
63% spread
Composite Liquidity Score42/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 9/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$56.35$76.0029.7%Moderate
2022$54.01$94.2654.3%Wide
2023$56.25$83.4238.9%Wide
2024$64.50$89.0632%Moderate
2025$69.99$113.8847.7%Wide
3-Year Range
67.7%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
68.4%
Outstanding Shares
18M
Bid-Ask Spread
63.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.