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AMWD

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

American Woodmark Corporation

Conservative #805Aggressive #1128Low Risk
$51.43-1.02%
Day High$54.96
Day Low$49.41
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$749M
52W Low $4752W High $74
Market Cap
$836M
P/E Ratio
13.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-7.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-14.4%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.53

Why This Score

AMWD scores 43.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 13.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-6.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.6
Fundamental Score45.3
ML Score50.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.9
6 Month
72.5
Primary
1 Year
76.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
48
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
39.6
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Final
43.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value84
Quality33
Growth22
Stability73
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +4.3%
Medium-term
-2.7% to +6.8%
Long-term
-3.4% to +9.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 50

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+7.6%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score39.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.6)
Momentum Quality-0.043
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
56%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P82
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.7σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (50) = 46.246.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 19% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -1.6ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #73 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AMWD43.613.3-7.5%3.9%$836M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

American Woodmark Corporation manufactures and distributes kitchen, bath, office, home organization, and hardware products for the remodelling and new home construction markets in the United States. The company offers made-to-order and cash and carry products. It also provides turnkey installation services to its direct builder customers through a network of eight service centers. The company sells its products under the American Woodmark, Timberlake, Shenandoah Cabinetry, Waypoint Living Spaces, Estate, Stor-It-All, and Professional Cabinet Solutions brands, as well as Hampton Bay, Glacier Bay, Style Selections, Allen + Roth, Home Decorators Collection, and Project Source. It markets its products directly to home centers and builders, as well as through independent dealers and distributors. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Winchester, Virginia.

CEO
Michael Scott Culbreth
Employees
8,600
Beta
1.26
Industry
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
26.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-30.5%
High: $73.98
From 52W Low
+9.1%
Low: $47.15
Moving Averages
10-Day
$56.10
Below
20-Day
$59.90
Below
50-Day
$58.70
Below
200-Day
$59.20
Below
60-Day Support
$49.41
60-Day Resistance
$69.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 20/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.36%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.24x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
6
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2026Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$324M$395M$403M$400M
Gross Profit$38M$60M$67M$68M
Operating Income$-34M$14M$20M$30M
Net Income$-29M$6M$15M$26M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.42$0.42$1.00$1.71
Gross Margin11.6%15.2%16.7%17.0%
Operating Margin-10.5%3.5%5.0%7.4%
Net Margin-8.9%1.5%3.6%6.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 13.3Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.3)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 48/100Score impact: -12.2pt

Volume
43
179K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
31
14M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$836M
Range
88
57% spread
Composite Liquidity Score48/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$56.29$108.8163.6%Wide
2022$40.70$68.4850.9%Wide
2023$47.98$94.7565.5%Wide
2024$76.57$106.5732.8%Moderate
2025$47.15$83.7255.9%Wide
3-Year Range
77.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.2%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
57.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.