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71

DPZ

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Domino's Pizza Inc

Conservative #92Aggressive #296Low RiskModerate 75
$403.94-2.48%
Day High$413.80
Day Low$402.51
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$13.6B
52W Low $37152W High $501
Market Cap
$12.7B
P/E Ratio
21.9
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
5.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
12.5%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

DPZ scores 70.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (4.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.31) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (75/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-1.8 points) applied. DPZ's rank of #92 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score70.6
Fundamental Score63.0
ML Score90.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.2
6 Month
89.7
Primary
1 Year
94.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
68.4
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-1.8
Final
70.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value70
Quality70
Growth60
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)55.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.2% to +8.1%
Medium-term
+5.5% to +12.9%
Long-term
+8.4% to +18.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 90

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.8/100
Target Upside+17.8%
Coverage51 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-4.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector-23.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.6)
Momentum Quality-0.171
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P59
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P41
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P49
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (69.6) + 9% ML (79.6) + SHAP(+3.7) = 74.2
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.8%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 23% (-5.8 pts). Price momentum -22% (-3.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($12.7B market cap)+2.0 pts
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #7 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy51 analysts
Buy: 26Hold: 24Sell: 1
Price Target
$473consensus
Low $370Median $470High $540
+17.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Domino's Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company offers pizzas under the Domino's brand name through company-owned and franchised stores. It also provides oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and chicken wings, bread and dips side items, desserts, and soft drink products. As of January 2, 2022, the company operated approximately 18,800 stores in 90 markets. Domino's Pizza, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

CEO
Russell J. Weiner
Employees
6,400
Beta
1.17
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.3%
High: $500.55
From 52W Low
+9%
Low: $370.7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$388.60
Above
20-Day
$394.60
Above
50-Day
$407.90
Below
200-Day
$434.80
Below
60-Day Support
$370.7
60-Day Resistance
$442.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-7.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.77%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.5x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.5B$1.1B$1.1B$1.1B
Gross Profit$610M$460M$461M$443M
Operating Income$297M$223M$225M$210M
Net Income$182M$139M$131M$150M
EPS (Diluted)$5.35$4.08$3.81$4.33
Gross Margin39.7%40.1%40.3%39.8%
Operating Margin19.3%19.5%19.7%18.9%
Net Margin11.8%12.1%11.4%13.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 21.9Profit margin 12.4%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 82/100Score impact: +1.2pt

Volume
88
696K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$279M/day
Float
62
32M shares
Mkt Cap
82
$12.7B
Range
60
35% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 16/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$319.71$567.5755.9%Wide
2022$299.41$564.7361.4%Wide
2023$285.84$415.8137%Wide
2024$395.08$542.7531.5%Moderate
2025$392.89$500.5524.1%Narrow
3-Year Range
62%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.0%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
35.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.