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THRM

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Gentherm Incorporated

Conservative #868Aggressive #1233Low RiskHigh 100
$33.00-1.05%
Day High$33.43
Day Low$32.65
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$1.0B
52W Low $2352W High $39
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
56.9
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
2.9%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-71.8%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.41

Why This Score

THRM scores 40.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 56.9x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-5.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.5
Fundamental Score46.4
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.4
6 Month
64.1
Primary
1 Year
67.5

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-538.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
56
Grade C
Base
37.3
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-0.8
Final
40.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

50AVG
Value43
Quality27
Growth23
Stability82
Investment75

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)27.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.7% to +2.4%
Medium-term
-2.1% to +4.0%
Long-term
-2.6% to +5.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.5/100
Target Upside+35.1%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+9.8%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.21)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality-0.023
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P8
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P50
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 46 relative to sector peers46/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 26th percentileP26
Blended score: 80% fundamental (46) + 20% ML (26) = 42.342.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 13% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.7pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 20pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-538.7%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #79 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
THRM40.556.92.9%1.2%$1.0B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Gentherm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures, and markets thermal management technologies. The company operates in two segments, Automotive and Medical. The Automotive segment offers climate comfort systems, which include seat heaters, blowers, and thermoelectric devices for variable temperature climate control seats and steering wheel heaters that are designed to provide thermal comfort to automobile passengers; integrated electronic components, such as electronic control units that utilize proprietary electronics technology and software; and other climate comfort systems, including neck conditioners and climate control system products for door panels, armrests, cupholders, and storage bins. It also provides battery performance solutions comprising cell connecting devices and battery cable technologies used for various types of automotive batteries, as well as thermal management products for heating and cooling 12 volts, 48 volts, and high voltage batteries and battery modules; and automotive electronic and software systems, including electronic control units for climate comfort systems, as well as for memory seat modules and other devices. This segment serves light vehicle original equipment manufacturers and first tier suppliers, such as automotive seat manufacturers, as well as aftermarket seat distributors and installers. The Medical segment offers patient temperature management systems. The company provides its products and services in the United States, Germany, Canada, China, Hungary, Japan, South Korea, Romania, Macedonia, Malta, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Vietnam. The company was formerly known as Amerigon Incorporated and changed its name to Gentherm Incorporated in September 2012. Gentherm Incorporated was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Northville, Michigan.

CEO
William T. Presley
Employees
14,000
Beta
1.32
Industry
Auto - Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.4%
High: $39.48
From 52W Low
+45.1%
Low: $22.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$32.50
Above
20-Day
$32.50
Above
50-Day
$35.40
Below
200-Day
$33.70
Below
60-Day Support
$29.89
60-Day Resistance
$39.48
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 29/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.56%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.59x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$383M$383M$375M$354M
Gross Profit$84M$91M$90M$86M
Operating Income$13M$24M$24M$17M
Net Income$3M$15M$477,000$-128,000
EPS (Diluted)$0.10$0.49$0.02$-0.00
Gross Margin22.0%23.8%23.9%24.4%
Operating Margin3.4%6.2%6.4%4.8%
Net Margin0.8%3.9%0.1%-0.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median (P/E 56.9)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 56/100Score impact: -6.3pt

Volume
51
213K avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
60
30M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.0B
Range
97
74% spread
Composite Liquidity Score56/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$64.45$89.5932.6%Moderate
2022$49.45$99.0066.8%Wide
2023$38.21$76.1366.3%Wide
2024$37.95$62.9349.5%Wide
2025$22.75$41.0957.5%Wide
3-Year Range
108%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.5%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
74.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.