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72

ORLY

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Conservative #72Aggressive #320Low RiskMixed 56ML↑ 22pt
$91.44-3.06%
Day High$94.08
Day Low$90.83
Volume6.0M
Mkt Cap$77.2B
52W Low $8652W High $109
Market Cap
$81.6B
P/E Ratio
32.5
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
5.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
1.7%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

ORLY scores 71.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -5.78) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.

No material penalties applied. ORLY ranks #72 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score71.9
Fundamental Score65.4
ML Score78.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.3
6 Month
90.9
Primary
1 Year
95.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
69.6
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-1.7
Final
71.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth60
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)55.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)65.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 78

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.4/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage47 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.6/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.82)
Relative Strength vs Sector+4.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.047
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P60
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P24
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P40
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (64.3) + 9% ML (83.7) + SHAP(+3.0) = 69.1—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.7%. Stability bonus of +8.6 points. Max drawdown 15% (-3.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($81.6B market cap)+3.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.7pt (ML 22pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #5 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy47 analysts
Buy: 28Hold: 18Sell: 1
Price Target
$109consensus
Low $91Median $109High $121
+18.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. Its stores offer auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. The company's stores also provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Its stores offer do-it-yourself and professional service provider customers a selection of products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

CEO
Brad W. Beckham
Employees
93,419
Beta
0.62
Industry
Auto - Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.9%
High: $108.72
From 52W Low
+6.9%
Low: $85.55
Moving Averages
10-Day
$94.00
Below
20-Day
$95.20
Below
50-Day
$94.40
Below
200-Day
$96.80
Below
60-Day Support
$89.12
60-Day Resistance
$102.46
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 39/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-5.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.32%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
14
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$4.4B$4.7B$4.5B$4.1B
Gross Profit$2.3B$2.4B$2.3B$2.1B
Operating Income$829M$976M$914M$741M
Net Income$605M$726M$669M$538M
EPS (Diluted)$0.71$0.85$0.78$0.62
Gross Margin51.8%51.9%51.4%51.3%
Operating Margin18.8%20.7%20.2%17.9%
Net Margin13.7%15.4%14.8%13.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalProfit margin 14.3%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: +15.5pt

Volume
100
5.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$558M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
100
$81.6B
Range
28
27% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 8/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$29.57$47.3946.3%Wide
2022$37.53$58.0643%Wide
2023$51.15$67.0626.9%Moderate
2024$60.97$85.6033.6%Moderate
2025$78.83$108.7231.9%Moderate
3-Year Range
72%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
27.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.